President Macron has shown from the very beginning of his first term that he often prioritizes communication, hoping to divert attention from the substance. France may not have a government nearly five months after the elections, at the beginning of July, but for the French president this does not seem to matter too much.

First there were the Olympic Games, which he considered to give him the right to “freeze” political processes, then the criticality of the war in Ukraine, which absorbed his energy and fueled his imagination with war plans and proposals.

The resentment on his face seemed to be rising day by day, but he himself didn’t seem to care. In the end, he appointed Michel Barnier as prime minister of a government which, no matter how flexible criteria one applies, cannot match it with the verdict of the voters.

Macron and the national symbol

On Friday, the French president decided that he would again need the power of image to divert attention away from the fact that France’s five-year bonds are now trading at 2.7%, i.e. even higher than Greece’s. Markets are steadily and painfully withdrawing their confidence from French politics and the economy.

Macron chose to be photographed at the Notre-Dame Cathedral and express his awe at its grandeur, a week anyway before the official opening after its repair and restoration, where of course he will once again be in the… front row opposite on the cameras. A national symbol is called upon to act as a lifeline for a power that seems to be up to its neck in its own impasses.

My dear bonds

The smiling president certainly does not match the state of the government, which he himself composed and which may experience its premature end before Christmas. The reason is, of course, that on the one hand he does not have a majority, on the other hand he has submitted a budget, which finds against him not only the opposition parties, but also the majority of French society. In a poll this week, 67% of French people find the budget bad and 53% say they want the government to fall.

Michel Barnier knowing he does not have a majority looks set to attempt to pass this 60 billion cut plan by presidential decree and without parliamentary approval by December 18th at the latest. It will thus give far-right Marine Le Pen a good reason to table a motion of censure or to vote in favor of the similar motion, which will be tabled by the “New Popular Front” of the Left.

Le Pen and Melanchon are sharpening their arrows

The far-right politician had avoided doing so until now, but bringing criminal charges against her was interpreted by her as a declaration of war. Now he states that measures such as the increase in the price of electricity, the recalculation of pensions and the abolition of the subsidy of certain medicines are not going to be accepted in any way. Her party’s National Alarm spokesman for the economy has now said the party will support the impeachment motion, apparently causing panic not only in the government itself, but also in markets bracing for the worst.

The one wringing his hands in advance is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has made it his goal from the outset to bring the government down. Mélenchon and Le Pen believe that since the Constitution does not allow elections to be held before 2026, then Macron must resign and call new presidential elections.

This is, of course, an extreme scenario, which everyone reckons will bring additional turmoil across Europe and perhaps unpredictable chain reactions within the Eurozone, at a time when the German government has also “expired” prematurely and the German economy “suffers”.

The savior Hollande?

For Michel Barnier, the hope of salvation lies in the moderate forces of the “New Popular Front” (Left and Center Left) and especially in the 66 Socialist MPs. He essentially asked them to distance themselves from the Mélenchon line and not vote for a motion of censure against his government. One of them, who seems not to want the country to enter such unfathomable paths, is the former president of the Republic and now a simple member of parliament of the Socialists, François Hollande. After disagreeing with scenarios for new elections, he called on Macron to proceed with the replacement of this government with another one, which will have parliamentary support.

Hollande accuses Mélenchon of putting his own personal ambition above the interest of the country. However, it is not certain that his opinion is shared by the rest of the Socialist MPs. During the negotiations to form a government Macron had attempted to woo the Socialists and break the Front, but without success.

Can he succeed now, citing the risk of anarchy and political chaos? And if he finally enlists such arguments, how will he be able to match them with the image of the carefree leader, who has time to be guided and photographed in the most important sights of the French capital?