Rebel forces operating in Syria are seeking to hold on to recent gains and seize more government-held territory, raising the question of whether President Bashar al-Assad can hold on to power.

Scenarios for how the latest flare-up in Syria’s 15-year-old conflict could play out remain unclear, and much depends on the agendas of powerful external actors as well as the internal hostilities that have shaped the latest developments. .

For Assad, 59, the key players in the emerging conflict are Iran, which sees Syria as part of its so-called axis of resistance against Israel and the West and has for years provided the bulk of its ground forces , and Russia, an old Cold War-era ally that stepped in to save him in 2015.

A major change would be if Russia, which has an airbase in the country, begins sweeping aerial bombardments against the rebels, as it did nine years ago. The difference this time is that Russia is busy with its war in Ukraine.

Assad has pinned down Syria with its population struggling with poverty, shortages and blackouts. The conflict has so far left between 300,000 and 500,000 dead, more than 7 million internally displaced, at least 6.4 million refugees and caused nearly half a trillion dollars in damage, according to United Nations agencies and Syrian NGOs.

Is this the end for Assad?

There are no signs that Assad is willing to compromise. His family has controlled Syria for five decades and he retained power during the civil war. Assad reportedly fled to Moscow after his army’s defenses quickly collapsed during the rebel offensive, but he returned to Damascus on Sunday, where he met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi.

“Syria is advancing the fight against terrorism with strength and determination in all its territories,” Assad said in a statement. The Syrian army has bombed rebel positions in Aleppo and has sent reinforcements to the area north of the city of Hama to try to halt the advance.

Could he make concessions?

Before the ongoing rebel offensive, Assad was under pressure from Arab states, Turkey, Western powers, but even Moscow to make political reforms that would give the opposition a place in the country’s governance, facilitate the return of refugees and would cut off the flow of drugs to neighboring states.

Syria’s president has so far relied on Iran’s unwavering support to resist those demands, which include stopping his country from being used as a conduit for arms transfers to Tehran-backed proxies, including Hezbollah. Even if he makes concessions on some of these points, it is unclear whether the rebels will sit at the negotiating table, given how weak the Syrian army and pro-government forces have proven to be.

“This is the inevitable consequence of Assad’s intransigence,” said Issam Al-Rayyes, a renegade Syrian army officer based abroad, commenting on the territorial losses. “He rejected a political solution and the military and the economy are in a sorry state.”

If Assad falls, who could succeed him?

This is probably the hardest question to answer. If the rebels reach Damascus and succeed in toppling Assad, one possible scenario is chaos and further fragmentation of the country. Regime loyalists led by Assad’s own Alawite sect would likely retreat to their strongholds in and around the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus, creating a leadership vacuum.

Rebels backed by defectors and the political opposition in exile could move to an alternative power structure to hold the war-torn country together. One scenario seen as likely after Assad is the establishment of an interim military council to support a civilian governing body, headed by two figures acceptable to regime opponents and loyalists.

Who are the revolutionaries?

The operation is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda offshoot that has been designated a terrorist organization by the US and other countries. It is believed to have 15,000 fighters in its ranks and has experience in local governance in areas of northwestern Syria that have remained outside Assad’s control.

HTS also includes thousands of fighters from the Turkish-backed and funded rebel group known as the National Liberation Front. The Syrian National Army, another Turkish-backed group, has launched its own operation, mainly in the north against US-backed Kurdish militias.

The most worrying development for Assad is that thousands of former rebels who were displaced in the north after the government retook territory are now taking part in the offensive again. Rebels in the south of the country, mainly in and around the city of Daraa, are also starting to join. HTS appears to have put aside past differences with rival rebel factions and appears less radical Islamist.

What about Russia?

Whether Assad is to remain in power will depend on what Russia does next. Moscow has become Syria’s main mediator as the role and influence of the US and its allies in the country have declined.

Russia negotiated with Iran and Turkey to allow Assad to recapture Aleppo and other territory in 2016. Given President Vladimir Putin’s more limited resources, he may this time pressure Assad to make major concessions, while a another possible scenario is to use the conflict in Syria as a bargaining chip for a broader Ukraine settlement.

However, Assad remains an important ally and is therefore unlikely to be abandoned by Putin.

The reaction of foreign powers

So far, Iran has shown resolute support for Assad. Already, there are reports on social media of Tehran-backed Iraqi militias mobilizing in the direction of Syria. The country is critical ground for the Islamic Republic’s so-called defense doctrine, which relies on regional proxies in its confrontation with Israel and the US.

Allied militias of the Islamic Republic based in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere helped Assad regain territory after his army collapsed at the start of a popular uprising in March 2011. However, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which maintains a significant presence in Syria, has been significantly weakened after 14 months of conflict with Israel.

Turkey is the dominant player in northern Syria and initially opposed the HTS-led offensive, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. But Ankara changed its stance after Assad refused to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss political reforms and the return of Syrian refugees as Turkey hosts more than 3 million.

An important element in the continuation of the operation for Turkey is how the rebels pushed the US-backed Kurdish militias, considered terrorists by Ankara, from inside Aleppo and the city of Tal-Rifaat.

The role of the US and Israel

The US has been working with Syria’s Kurds for nearly a decade in the fight against Islamic State and maintains 900 troops in the country. Arab states, which have forged a rapprochement relationship recently with Assad in order to reduce ties with Iran and reconcile with the opposition, along with the Americans are adopting a wait-and-see attitude in the face of rapidly unfolding events.

So did Israel, which significantly stepped up its strikes against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria after Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are designated terrorist organizations by the US and other countries.