Turkey will meet today in Doha with Russia and Iran to try to find a political and peaceful way out of Syria and avoid chaos on its doorstep.

The three countries, which send their foreign ministers to Doha, have been partners in the Astana process since 2017, which was launched to silence the weapons in Syria, but have not been on the same side in the field. of battle.

Moscow and Tehran rushed to the side of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and helped him militarily to crush the opposition, while Ankara, without being directly involved in the field, favorably observes the progress made by the rebel movements.

“For Ankara, the change in the balance of power in Syria represents both an opportunity and a risk,” summarizes Hamish Kinir, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft consultancy.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who this week called on Assad to “reconcile with his people”, yesterday, Friday, expressed his “desire” that “the advance of the rebels continues without problems”, without failing to mention clearly that “the target (of the rebels) is Damascus”, after Aleppo and Hama.

At the center of the equation, the more than 900 kilometers of border between the two countries and the nearly three million Syrian refugees in Turkey.

For now, “Turkey’s exact role in the (current) situation remains a matter of speculation,” writes Omer Ozkizilcik, a researcher at the Atlantic Council in Ankara. “But what is certain is that, without being directly involved, Turkey gave the green light for the attack,” he adds.

Besides, he explained to AFP, the Turkish government knew about the preparations, even though its relations are traditionally “complicated” with the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which is carrying out the attack in Syria.

What is essential for Turkey “is stability in Syria and a safe zone to which Syrian refugees could return,” says Günul Tol, Turkey director at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

With this goal, he estimates, Russia and Erdogan could seek “to promote a transitional government without Assad, but with some elements of his regime and the opposition.”

In recent months, Erdogan’s hand out to his neighbor and even his invitation to meet him have remained a dead letter, as President Assad has demanded an earlier withdrawal from northwestern Syria of Turkish forces, which have been deployed there to fight against the Kurdish fighters.

Vladimir Putin, Gynoul Tol estimates, was irritated by this lack of response from the Syrian president.

But “Erdogan is no longer promoting the overthrow of the Assad regime, which would create a vacuum from which the Islamic State group and Kurdish organizations could benefit,” according to Tol.

“Assad has managed to irritate everyone, including the Iranians, the Russians and the Turks, because he is dragging his feet in trying to reach deals with Turkey and others,” he underlines.

Iran, for its part, has pointed to a lack of support for Bashar al-Assad following the death of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who had rushed to his aid. Tehran would also undoubtedly be ready to negotiate with a new team, believes Gionul Tol.

Sinan Ulgen, a researcher at Carnegie Europe in Ankara, wonders: “if Russia and Iran still wish to support Syria, do they still have the ability to do so?”

The Doha summit could seal the fate of President Assad, experts estimate, as he is participating in it, opposite the Russian minister Sergey Lavrov, the head of Turkish diplomacy Hakan Fidan, a loyalist of the head of state and former head of the Turkish services information.

“Hakan Fidan knows the Syrian issue, the field and above all all the protagonists: the states, but also the armed organizations and militias that are present,” assures Sinan Ulgen.

Fidan even received this week his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, who traveled to Ankara after passing through Damascus.