The Syrian opposition’s astonishing advance in a week is the unintended consequence of two other conflicts, one near and one far, reports CNN in its analysis.

At the same time, it leaves several key US allies with a new and largely unknown Islamist-led force ruling parts of their strategic neighbor – if not most of it, given the pace of events.

Since the invasion of Iraq, the US has struggled to find a political solution for Syria that could meet the very different needs of its allies Israel, Jordan, Turkey and its one-time partners Iraq and Lebanon.

Syria has always been a hub: it connected Iraq’s oil to the Mediterranean, Iraq’s and Iran’s Shiites to Lebanon and the southern part of NATO, Turkey to Jordan’s deserts. George Bush had included her in the Axis of Evil. Barack Obama didn’t want to touch her, Donald Trump bombed her once.

Syria has been under the control of a brutal dictatorship for decades. What was assumed was that no one could change the facts in Syria, until this week’s release from the regime came, at an as yet unknown cost and with huge caveats.

Bashar al-Assad’s fate was not actually decided in Syria, but in southern Beirut and Donetsk. Without the physical crutches of the Russian air force and Iran’s Hezbollah, it faltered when it finally got pushed.