What a popular uprising unsuccessfully attempted in 2011 was achieved in 2024 in Syria. The fall of his dictatorial regime Bashar al-Assad it is a striking example of the interconnectedness of the upheavals that shake the world. His fall came from the weakening – on two different but interrelated fronts – of his main allies. Russia is suffering enormous damage from its invasion of Ukraine. Iran and Hezbollah have been weakened by Israel’s strikes in its response to the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas.

Iran is known to provide significant military support to the Kremlin in its illegal aggression against Ukraine. Both kept the Assad regime afloat for years.

China is the biggest supporter of both Russia and Iran, from which it buys large quantities of oil, bypassing US sanctions. But the Assad regime it was completely rotten and a greatly weakened Russia and an Iran could no longer support it. His opponents – a mix of actors that includes radical Islamists and Turkish-backed militias – understood all this very well.

Recent events will have enormous geopolitical consequences that may seem regional at first glance, but are actually global in scope. First, because the territorial continuity of the “Axis of Resistance” is interrupted. Tehran was able to count on a fluid projection into the Mediterranean thanks to an Iraq in the hands of Shiite factions, Assad’s Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The issue complicates the ability to supply the Lebanese Shiite militia. Second, because it affects the visibility in the region of Russia, which had air and naval bases in Syria thanks to the full complicity of Assad. And, moreover, it moves the ground under the feet of other members of the “Axis of Resistance.”

These conditions outline perspectives of global interest. The first is the new incentive for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. This trend would be extremely worrying, especially considering that Donald Trump will soon be in the White House. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the nuclear pact sealed by Obama and does not appear to be emerging as a particularly stable steward of that situation.

The second place to keep in mind is Yemen, another unstable country where the Houthis, members of the weakened Axis, could suffer the consequences of the shifting balance of power in the region. Its location on a strategic sea lane lends global importance to this instability, with China a particularly interested player as many of its exports pass through there, coupled with the fact that its economy is losing ground.

Fall of Assad

The US does not have the influence it had in other time periods. Their actions – from the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003 to their support for Israeli military operations – and their need to focus on other fronts have eroded their prominence in the region in recent decades. But it is predictable that Trump will give strong support to Israel’s colonial plans and to an understanding between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Russia is unable to project influence. And an economically struggling China doesn’t seem interested in wasting its power on this powder keg.

Assad’s fall is a reminder that in times of great geopolitical turmoil, change can be unpredictable and abrupt. Regimes that seemed relatively stable can collapse within days. Situations that have been going on for decades, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, can also be resolved in a matter of days. We live in a state of deep turmoil.

There are reasons to believe that the turmoil in the Middle East is far from over. Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that he has a plan to reorganize the regional chessboard. He has hinted that regime change in Iran could come sooner than many expect. Time will tell. But what is clear is that the hatred he created with his brutal response to the Hamas attack will not go away. It is yet another element of the turmoil caused by interrelated crises.