In August 2025, its president Poland Andrey Duda will leave his post after two terms. His successor will be elected in May. The exact date has not yet been set. However, the two political camps are already battling for voters’ favor: the centrist government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the nationalist opposition under Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, have already presented their nominees for office.

Laser show and sacks of cement

The candidate of the largest group in the government, the Citizens Coalition (KO), is the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski. He presented his program last Saturday at an event in Gliwice, Upper Silesia. Around 7,000 party members and supporters took part in an American-style show with laser beams and folk music. Prime Minister Tusk was also present.

Karol Nabrocki, who was selected for the race by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), appeared the same day in Landek Zdroj, 170 kilometers away. This town was badly hit during the late summer floods. Last Saturday, Nawrotsky helped flood victims with cleanup and restoration work. He carried sacks of cement and helped move a refrigerator into a renovated house.

The 41-year-old historian blamed the Tusk government for the disaster and called on Trzaskowski to help flood victims instead of organizing fiestas. PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski opened an account on Platform X that same Saturday, criticizing the opponent’s speech.

Crossroads elections for the country

“This election is about everything,” Tusk said in Gliwice. His center-left camp took power a year ago, but has yet to implement most of the reforms it promised due to President Duda’s obstructionism. Duda repeatedly vetoes the government’s legislative proposals, preventing the reversal of previous government policies.

Trzaskowski’s victory would help break the gridlock on issues such as women’s rights and restoring the rule of law. If defeated, however, the governing coalition is threatened with stagnation and possibly even collapse. This was also the reason why Tusk chose an experienced companion for the battle for the presidency in the person of the mayor of Warsaw. Trzaskowski narrowly lost to Duda five years ago. Then, 10 million Poles voted for him.

The 52-year-old political scientist with a PhD can look back on a long and successful career: among other things, he has been Minister of Administration and Digitization, Undersecretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Member of the European Parliament. Since 2018 he is the mayor of the capital of Poland. He is also Tusk’s deputy in the party.

The province will announce the winner

The left-liberal politician knows that to win, he also needs the support of the province. In the summer, he sparked strong protests from the Catholic Church when he ordered the removal of religious symbols, including crosses, from City Hall offices. Many of his supporters felt that this step was a mistake.

As a presidential candidate, Trzaskowski has now become more cautious. So now he spoke of love of country, sense of community and equal opportunities for all. “I believe in a Poland, in which the open hand can defeat the clenched fist,” he said. He promised to liberalize the restrictive abortion law. He also made a gesture to his local hosts: he announced that the Silesian language would be recognized as a regional language, something Duda strongly rejects. He named three issues that will be at the forefront of his program: economy, security and equality.

And “light” anti-Germanism and Euroscepticism

Railing against the European Union and Germany, Trzaskowski also sought to appeal to fringe voters who are skeptical of the big neighbor and the EU. “We need economic patriotism. No more naive views on globalization,” he argued, while also criticizing the free trade agreement between the European Union and the South American economic alliance Mercosur. “This agreement threatens the interests of Polish farmers and should not be concluded,” he said. Trzaskowski finally announced an increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2026 and called it a scandal that Germany, with an economy nine times larger than Poland’s, spends “the same or not much more” on the military.

Nationalist candidate as ‘angel of peace’

According to opinion polls, the majority of Poles today give Trzaskowski a clear lead over Nawrocki in the event of a repeat election. According to a survey conducted by the public opinion research institute United Survey on December 2, 2024, more than half of the respondents believed that he would win the election. Only 27% saw Navrotsky leading.

However, Kaczynski believes in the effectiveness of his tactical manoeuvre: although several leading PiS politicians were being floated behind the scenes as candidates, he suddenly pulled non-party Navrotsky out of a hat. The doctor of history heads the Institute of National Remembrance – a Polish equivalent of the Federal Service for Stasi archives. He was previously director of the World War II Museum in Gdańsk. In both positions, he promoted PiS’s often controversial narratives of history.

After eight years in government, many Poles associate PiS with abuse of power, corruption and cronyism. The candidate, described by his campaign staff as “politically minded and independent,” aims to appeal to moderate voters. His self-promotion as an “angel of peace” also serves this purpose.

“I want to end the Polish-Polish war,” Nawrocki said after his nomination two weeks ago. He emphasized that he comes from a working-class family in Gdańsk and lives “with Poland in my heart – modestly, but with dignity.” The former amateur boxer, who made a living as a bouncer at the Grand Hotel in Sopot when he was a student, presents himself as close to the people. “I am one of you,” he emphasized.

Criminal history?

The fact that Nawrotsky was relatively unknown, which should have been an advantage, could now become a serious disadvantage. A report that emerged last week revealed that the PiS candidate allegedly had contacts with criminal rings, including hooligans from the Lechia Gdańsk football club and motorcycle gangs. The origin of the document, which was first reported by online platform Onet, is unclear. It is alleged that its editors are among the critics of his candidacy in the ranks of PiS.

Nawrocki’s acquaintances reportedly include Olgierd L., a former neo-Nazi convicted of pimping and grievous bodily harm. Nawrocki defended himself against the accusations, saying it was about “public contacts” at “patriotic events”. He had such contacts with “thousands of Poles”. This particular man was arrested last Friday for participating in a criminal organization that is accused, among other things, of arms trafficking and arson.

Despite his lead in the polls, Trzaskowski remains vigilant to avoid the mistake his party made in 2015, when liberal-conservative President Bronisław Komorowski, who was running for office again, underestimated unknown MEP Andriy Duda. Ultimately, Duda won the race and ushered in eight years of PiS rule.

Edited by: Kostas Argyros