The future of the Russian military presence in Syria. An analysis by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that there are numerous reports in the media that Moscow is evacuating its military bases in Syria.

The think tank notes, however, that the “complex nature” of the transitional government in Syria is likely to lead to conflicting reports on whether the Russia is holding talks with Syrian opposition groups. Although the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) jihadists led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani control the interim government, they do not yet have full control over the various groups that helped topple the Assad regime. It therefore remains unknown whether Moscow is in contact with all Syrian opposition groups, which is a prerequisite to ensure the short- and long-term security of its military bases in the country.

“So far there is intense activity in Khmeimim, but not to the extent that would give the impression that the facilities are being evacuated,” Gustav Gressel, a former fellow at the European Council on International Relations (ECFR), tells Deutsche Welle. In his view, the Russian ships are continuing the naval exercises in the Mediterranean, but without going away and in all probability “Russia will start behind-the-scenes consultations, to maintain the bases”.

Access to the Mediterranean for Moscow

As the Austrian military and doctor of military history Markus Reisner points out, the naval base of Tartus is “strategically more important” for Moscow, as from there “forces can be channeled into the Mediterranean region”. Khmeimim air base was necessary to protect the Assad regime against the rebels, but today that necessity seems to be missing.

On the contrary, the British Mark Galeotti, author of the book “Putin’s Wars”, believes that both facilities are equally valuable to Moscow. “It’s interesting to see how quickly the Russians tried to come to terms with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” says Galeotti. Until recently they were called ‘terrorists’, last weekend they started calling them ‘guerrillas’ and now they are hoping for an agreement to the mutual benefit of both.” But what can Russia offer from its side in order to reach an agreement? “The rebels may be supported by Turkey, but they don’t want to be subservient to Turkey,” says Galeotti. “And the Russians are quite cynical and pragmatic. They could offer HTS an opportunity to reduce its dependence on Turkey. And this not only in terms of military cooperation, as Moscow traditionally maintains close commercial ties with Syria.”

For her part, Bursu Oscelik, a researcher at the British RUSI Institute, believes that the rebels are in no hurry to quickly fulfill Moscow’s wishes. “It is doubtful if HTS is eager to emerge as a new ally of Putin, even to give the green light for a long-term military presence of Russia, when Bashar Al-Assad has actually found refuge on Russian soil,” she says. In her view, we are entering a long period of negotiations, during which the region’s regional powers – particularly Russia and Iran – will attempt to “readjust” their strategy towards Syria.

“Moving” to Libya?

If the Russians were indeed forced to leave Syria, where could they settle? Libya is usually mentioned as a possible alternative. Already today the mercenaries of the “Wagner group” are fighting alongside General Khalifa Haftar. Western reports claim that Moscow wants a naval base on the Libyan coast, possibly in the Tobruk region.

But Mark Galeotti reckons the undertaking will be difficult, as Libya lacks the necessary infrastructure, and the same is true of less desirable alternatives such as Sudan or Mali. As the British political scientist points out, “wherever the Russians go, they will hardly find conditions as good as those they have today in Syria.”

dpa, Reuters, dts

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou