The man widely expected to become Germany’s next leader is a long-time adversary of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has tried to move her party back to the right. He is a corporate lawyer by training, known for flashy displays of wealth acquired in the private sector. Those close to him describe him as direct and pragmatic, but also arrogant and sensitive.

Polls show Friedrich Merz will be in a strong position to become chancellor after Germany’s February 23 snap election, with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), in the lead to create a comfortable first.

Merz’s moment has arrived

A self-proclaimed social conservative and economic liberalMerz has spent years chasing his dream job. At 69, he would be the oldest person to take over as chancellor since Konrad Adenauer, the first post-war leader of West Germany’s government, who was 73.

OR Merz moment arrived at a particularly difficult period. Germany, the engine of Europe, whispers. Its economy is stagnant. Its infrastructure and industry are in desperate need of investment. Adding to the uncertainty are the ongoing war in Ukraine, the growing security threat from Russia and the unpredictability of a second Donald Trump presidency.

Merz has promised “policies that will push Germany forward, make the country work again and maybe also make us proud of our country, of Germany, again».

Merz comes from a conservative Catholic family in the rural Sauerland region of western Germany. He joined the CDU youth in 1972 and entered full-time politics in 1989, when he became a member of the European Parliament. After a term in Brussels, he was elected in 1994 to the Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, where he served until 2009.

He was best known for arguing in 2003 that German tax rules should be fairly straightforward so a family can calculate what they owe on a coaster. One of his demo coasters is in the collection of the House of History museum in Bonn.

The showdown with Merkel

His decision to quit politics was prompted by a bitter showdown for party leadership. Merkel ended up taking the top party post and later stripping Merz of a prominent role in the Bundestag. “This was a matter of failed faith for Merz,” said Jutta Falke-Ischinger, Merz’s biographer.

After leaving politics, Merz worked in corporate law at Mayer Brown and served on various advisory boards, including as chairman of the German arm of US fund manager BlackRock. His earnings from the private sector – and his two private jets – became a handicap when he tried to get back into politics.

“People from Sauerland are known for being down to earth and also very direct. In Merz, that immediacy is evident – but not so much the down-to-earth natureFalke-Ischinger said.

However, he was re-elected to the Bundestag in 2021 and, soon after, named party leader of the CDU.

Merz has made it his mission to reverse Merkel’s liberalization moves and shift the CDU back to the right, particularly on immigration. He sharply criticized Merkel’s “open-door” response to the wave of refugees fleeing the Syrian civil war. Merz wants an approach with more emphasis on security and law and order.

He has gotten into trouble for labeling some children of Muslim immigrants as “little passes” without respect for authority and that he falsely implied that immigrants received expensive dental treatments while German citizens could not get appointments.

His critics say he has resorted to populist rhetoric while the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to poll as the second-strongest party. But some party colleagues count Mertz’s unfiltered rhetoric among his positives.

“Merz is more outspoken than the average politician in Germany, who are generally very reluctant to say anything for fear of risking something“said senior CDU politician Jürgen Hart.

“He said we have too many people who think too much about what they say and sometimes hide their true opinion because they are afraid to speak upHardt said. “And he doesn’t want to move like that. He wants honesty and clear political messages».

How will Mertz fare with Trump?

Observers both inside and outside the party say Mertz’s bluntness could be good for forging a partnership with Donald Trump.

On the day of the January 6 riot at the US Capitol, Mertz tweeted: “Donald Trump is clearly not a democrat. He refuses to accept his defeat or the decisions of the courts».

But Mertz is also an avowed Atlanticist—he served a 10-year stint as head of Atlantik-Brücke, Atlantic Bridge, an association that seeks to foster German-American understanding. Moreover, he knows that Germany depends on the United States as its largest export market and that the tariffs threatened by Trump could seriously damage the German economy.

“Mertz understands that regardless of who is in the White House, the transatlantic alliance will remain, for the foreseeable future, extremely important to us. For security, defense and financial reasons. But he also knows something is changingsaid Peter Beyer, a senior CDU MP and former Coordinator for Transatlantic Cooperation during Merkel’s fourth and final term.

“There has been much talk of strengthening NATO’s European pillar in recent years. But beyond the rhetoric, not much has been done. Merz wants to change that».

In a debate in parliament ahead of Chancellor Olaf Solz’s censure vote on Monday, Mertz criticized Solz for a lack of assertiveness on global issues. “You have brought shame to Germany” in front of the European Union and other allies, Mertz said.

Mertz on the war in Ukraine

This month, Mertz visited Ukraine for the second time since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Germany was Ukraine’s second largest supporter after the United States. Merz advocates an even more aggressive approach, including authorizing long-range Taurus missiles.

Ukrainian refugees in Germany, however, could expect a reduction in benefits under Merz. He apologized for saying that Ukrainians coming from Germany were engaged in “welfare tourism”. But his party argues that generous state benefits have discouraged Ukrainians from finding work.

More military spending, along with the need to invest in troubled sectors of the German economy, creates a dilemma for Merz, a believer in strict fiscal discipline.

He has long been an advocate of the constitutionally enshrined “debt brake” to maintain a balanced state budget. Although it may soften. “Of course, it can be reformedhe told supporters last month, suggesting that extra borrowing to stimulate investment could be acceptable but would draw the line at higher welfare or consumption spending.

Overall, Merz is expected to promote a market-driven approach while promoting Germany as an investment hub in Europe. In his 2008 book, “Dare More Capitalism,” he called for cutting red tape, cutting business taxes and cutting welfare benefits.