Is Friedrich Merz ready to rule? For him the question seems unnecessary. Merz was “born ready” to govern, if we consider that already 20 years ago he had claimed his participation in the chairmanship of the German Christian Democrats (CDU) with an eye on the elections that would follow. He even had the “blessings” of the powerful Wolfgang Schäuble to succeed Social Democrat Gerhard Schröder as chancellor.

However, he was bypassed by Angela Merkel, who also won the 2005 elections. And even after a vote of confidence, which the social democrat Schroeder had requested in Parliament, hoping not to receive it, as is the case today.

So now history is repeating itself, but it is no joke that 68-year-old Friedrich Merz is closer than ever to the chancellor. At least that’s what the polls suggest. But by Election Day, February 23, a lot can happen. At least that’s what the current chancellor, Social Democrat Olaf Solz, who is running for re-election, believes.

Taurus are “divided” over Kiev

An important obstacle that Mertz has to overcome in order to be elected chancellor, is the pre-election “triplepods” that Soltz will put him on the issue of Ukraine, but also on the economic front. In Ukrainian, Mertz has pledged to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kiev, which can easily hit targets inside Russian territory.

Current chancellor Soltz seems reluctant to send missiles. On February 23, election day, a month will have passed since Donald Trump was sworn into the White House, some Western leaders will “urge” Kiev to seriously consider a negotiated solution, and some analysts in Germany will remind that Russian missiles in Kaliningrad they can “hit” Berlin within three minutes.

Does Friedrich Mertz still insist on sending Taurus to Ukraine? “Yes”, he said a few days ago during his visit to Kiev, clarifying, however, that this assurance was provided “based on the data valid today”. “President Zelensky knows our position on the Taurus missiles and nothing has changed,” he said. “Based on the data as it stands today, in December 2024, ‘it remains our decision that we must do everything so that Ukraine can exercise its right to self-defense, without restrictions, and to end this war as soon as possible. ».

“Atrocity” and public debt

On the economic front, the fight between Soltz and Mertz is a given. After all, on the initiative of the CDU, the appeal to the Supreme Federal Constitutional Court of Germany was made in the fall of 2023 in order to observe the constitutionally enshrined “debt brake” which places very strict restrictions on new borrowing. The decision of the judges – which certainly corresponds to the current law – caused a “political earthquake” and essentially led to the dissolution of the government coalition currently made up of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Liberals (FDP).

In recent days “chancellor-in-waiting” Friedrich Merz has hinted, for the first time, that he might consider an amendment to the “debt brake”. But he doesn’t say it boldly. “Never say never,” he said in a recent interview. However, on Monday in parliament he accused Soltz of “accumulating debt at the expense of future generations”, while in mid-November he had launched a fierce attack on the chancellor, saying that the decision to call early elections “was necessary because your own government with unprecedented audacity attempted to bypass the constitutional limits of new borrowing”.

Olaf Solz is certain to make the new borrowing a major campaign issue, accusing Mertz of either wanting to loot the welfare state to fund the defense budget or preparing for a post-election U-turn, which he wants to keep quiet.

Is CSU ‘OK’?

Another important condition for Friedrich Merz to win elections is for the center-right opposition front to remain intact until polling day. In the 2021 election, Armin Lasset’s candidacy for chancellor had been undermined from within, as the head of the “sister party” of the Bavarian Christian Socialists (CSU), Markus Zender, insisted that he receive the “anointing”. This time he preferred consensus and appeared together with Friedrich Merz in mid-September to state bluntly: “The issue of the candidacy is over. The candidate will be Friedrich Mertz. I am fine with this decision and I clearly support it.”

Unlike what happened under Angela Merkel, CDU and CSU are very close to immigration, supporting a strict policy. However, they appear to be at odds on other issues, such as whether to work with Economy Minister Robert Habeck’s Greens if post-election power alignments demand it.

Friedrich Merz seems to leave a door ajar, Markus Zender categorically rules out this possibility. Over the weekend, in an interview, Mertz took a step toward Zender, saying that “Robert Habeck’s economic policy has saved us two years of recession and last place in Europe. We can’t go on like this. Anyone who does not understand this cannot be the right government partner for us.”