Turkey and Israel are the main strategic beneficiaries of the collapse of the Syrian regime, which has reduced Iranian influence in the Middle East.

But now these two U.S. allies, whose already poor relations have escalated to a breaking point since the start of the Gaza war last year, are now on a collision course of their own, in Syria and beyond, Wall said in an analysis Street Journal.

Managing this rivalry is likely to be a priority for the incoming Trump administration, increasing pressure on the network of US allies in Europe and the Middle East.

The enmity between Israel and Turkey is nothing compared to the long and bloody conflict between Israel, Iran and its proxies. Tehran’s religious leadership seeks to wipe the Jewish state off the map, and the two countries have engaged in a series of direct attacks on each other this year, escalating Middle East stability.

The dismantling of the Iranian-led “axis of resistance,” whose support extended from Iran and Iraq through Syria to Hezbollah, is an immediate and significant benefit to Israel’s security.

But Israeli officials said they were concerned that a new axis of Sunni Islamists led by Turkey could develop into an equally serious threat over time, given Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s public support for Israel’s sworn enemies, such as Palestinian movement Hamas.

While the de facto leader of the new Syria, Ahmed al-Sara’a, popularly known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani, professes that he does not seek conflict and wants to focus on rebuilding the country, he and his team have had relations with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

After the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, Turkey has by far emerged as the dominant power in Damascus. This brings Erdogan closer than ever to achieving his ambition of expanding his sphere of influence in the former Ottoman territories, as far as Libya and Somalia.

President-elect Donald Trump, speaking at Mar-a-Lago on Monday, described the ouster of Assad as a “victory” for Turkey in Syria. Erdogan unveiled his own vision for Turkey as a leading power in the Middle East two days later. “Every event in our region, and especially in Syria, reminds us that Turkey is bigger than Turkey itself,” Erdogan said. “The Turkish nation cannot escape its fate.”

In addition to Qatar, which is a close ally of Turkey, other US partners in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Jordan, have their own misgivings about Turkey’s new influence. They fear that a revival of political Islam spreading from Damascus could undermine the security of their states.

Turkey, which in 1949 became the first Muslim country to recognize Israel, still maintains an embassy in Tel Aviv, even as Erdogan branded Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the “butcher of Gaza” after tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces. , even proceeding to impose economic sanctions against Israel.

There is no doubt that a Turkish-dominated Syria is much better for Israel than an Iranian-dominated Syria, analysts say, as Turkey does not want Israel destroyed, does not develop nuclear weapons, does not supply Hezbollah with equipment and does not send tens of thousands of militias in Syria.

At the same time, the same analysts consider an imminent confrontation between Israel and Turkey in Syria to be a worrying development.

Turkey’s foreign and defense policy has angered recent US administrations, which disapprove of Erdogan’s military and nuclear energy cooperation with Russia and covert Turkish aid to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. “

The only fighting currently taking place in Syria is between Turkish-backed militias, the Syrian National Army, against the Syrian Kurdish region in the country’s northeast, which is home to several US military bases. Some of these fighters are Kurds from southeastern Turkey who hail from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an organization that both Ankara and Washington label as terrorist.

Washington’s support for Syrian Kurdish armed groups has long been a major grievance of Turkey.
In remarks that angered Ankara, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said this week that Israel too should consider the Kurds, who he said are oppressed by Turkey and Iran alike, as its “natural allies” and should strengthen the ties with them and with other minorities.

Despite the statements, it is unlikely that Israel will actually support Syrian Kurdish fighters against Turkey and its proxies, said Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat with long experience dealing with Kurdish issues. “Both Ankara and Israel are winners in recent developments. I don’t see the possibility of an open conflict between Israel and Turkey at all. It doesn’t make sense.”

Unlike the US, which has deployed around 2,000 troops in Syria, Israel has no visible presence in the Syrian Kurdish areas, which are far away.

“We have long-term relations with the Kurds, it’s part of our history, it’s part of their history. But Israel is not going to take the American role in supporting the Kurds,” said retired Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu and a fellow at the Jewish National Security Institute of America.

In recent days, Turkey has repeatedly called on Israel to withdraw troops from the occupation zone around the Syrian Golan Heights, accusing it of trying to sabotage the transition after the fall of the Assad regime.

In addition to seizing territory in southern Syria, which Netanyahu said would last at least until 2025, over the past two weeks Israel has relentlessly bombarded what remains of the Assad regime’s military infrastructure, ensuring that Syria’s new rulers they will have no air defenses, navy, air force or long range missiles and rockets.

Responding to Ankara’s request to withdraw troops, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said Turkey is the last country that can raise the issue of occupying Syria because Turkish troops have been operating in that country since 2016, supporting “jihadist forces.” and expanding the Turkish currency, banking and postal services to much of the country.

Golani’s organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, remains designated a terrorist group by the US, although the rebel commander has tried to project a moderate image.

He has repeatedly spoken out for minority rights and said he is more interested in rebuilding Syria after the destruction caused by the nearly 14-year civil war than opening a new conflict with Israel.

These assurances, however, do not convince many in the Israeli leadership. Golani, moreover, authorized Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. His nom de guerre is a reference to his family’s origins in the Golan Heights, an area Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and has since annexed.

“HTS in leadership position in Damascus, under Turkish auspices, raises fears of deployment of hostile Islamists on Israel’s northeastern border. This difficult situation could become even more difficult if the Kurds are defeated, opening the way for an ISIS resurgence,” said Shalom Lipner, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who has served as an adviser to several Israeli prime ministers. “Israel is in deep defensive posture.”

The potential threat from Syria is not immediate, given the weakness of the country’s new rulers, analysts say. In the medium term, however, Islamist groups in southern Syria could endanger Israeli communities, while in the long term a Syrian army rebuilt with Turkish weapons and aid could once again pose the same danger that Assad’s army posed. .

Assurances of good intentions coming from Syria’s new leaders have as much credibility as statements by Hamas that lulled Israel into a false sense of security before the Oct. 7 attack, Israeli officials say. Everyone – not just Israel – should be very careful with the new regime in Syria,” the Israeli side says.