A few days ago, the Chinese authorities announced that they are starting investigations against the Nvidia company, which is one of the leading manufacturers of microchips and the most successful business in recent years with a capitalization reaching 3.4 trillion dollars. Of course, everyone understands that behind the official justification for suspected use of monopolistic practices there are other purposes hidden.

The Chinese leadership sends the message in advance to Donald Trump that it is ready to enter the trade war, which he has effectively announced against Beijing, that it will start from the very first days of his new term. The Chinese attack on Nvidia, which is considered a pioneer in the manufacture of semiconductors suitable for use in the field of artificial intelligence, is reminiscent of earlier attacks by the first Trump administration against Chinese companies. It does not directly affect the company, which in the third quarter of the year recorded a turnover of 35 billion. of dollars with 19 billion profits, however caused a relative hesitancy of investors towards its stock.

Tariffs up to 60%

In other words, it is more of a response, but also… prevention at the same time, as the US president-elect has declared his determination to “throw into” the trade war with China. During the election campaign he often talked about imposing tariffs of 10% to 100% on Chinese goods. In the end it seemed to have… settled on a 60% tariff on key sectors, which – if indeed imposed – will have an impact on the economies of both sides.

However, the war is being waged on many levels, even before Trump took office. In early December, the US government announced restrictions on exports of microchips and machinery to make them to Chinese companies, and Beijing responded by banning exports of rare earths, which are used to make them, important among other things in the defense industry. One cannot forget the occasional displays of military power in the Taiwan Straits which are a permanent point of friction.

A minister without… a visa

All of this will likely become even hotter next year. In 2020, the Chinese authorities barred the next US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, from entering the country due to his criticism of human rights, while the next president’s security adviser, Mike Waltz, has emphasized that he considers the number one threat to his country China and not Russia.

But let’s get back to the purely trade war, the escalation of which could have a shrinking effect of up to minus 2% on the annual growth rate of China’s economy. This is also the reason why President Xi Jinping has taken care in time to prepare his country for the possibility of Trump’s return and possible escalation of the confrontation.

Unlike the Europeans who are waiting to see writing samples and anxious, the Chinese have taken their measures. In the last four years, the leadership in Beijing took care, for example, to diversify its export flows. If in 2000 products exported to the G7 countries made up 48% of Chinese exports, this percentage has fallen to 30% today.

Open worldwide

The conclusion of stronger trade ties with the countries of Latin America and Africa and of course with Russia and India has of course also geopolitical expediency. Chinese companies have also expanded into other smaller Asian markets, such as Vietnam.

So this time the two rivals seem more ready to fight than in 2017. The paradox of the case is, however, that Trump is said to have high regard for Xi and has even invited him to his inauguration ceremony on January 20. The President of China will probably not reciprocate, but will honor his rival by sending a high-ranking and numerous delegation.

However, according to US-China relations experts, this is in no way a prelude to the willingness of the two sides to lead to some kind of truce. Respect for the opponent, especially when you see him almost as an enemy, does not change his quality.