The “grand coalition” scenario, a government with the Christian Union (CDU/CSU) as a major partner and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) as a minor partner, is indicated by the last poll of the year for the Bild newspaper as the most likely post-election alliance.

According to the INSA institute survey carried out on behalf of the tabloid, the Union maintains its net lead in terms of voting intentions marginally reduced with 31% (-1), while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains in second place with 20% (unchanged). The SPD follows with 17% (+1), while the Greens remain in fourth place with 12%. The Zara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is limited to 7% (-1), while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) will have to fight to enter the Bundestag, it is below the 5% mark with 4% (-1 ).

“At the moment, a parliamentary majority for a CDU/CSU – SPD coalition is visible with 48%. A CDU/CSU – Greens coalition would garner 43%, but for a governing majority a figure of 44% is required,” explained INSA head Herman Binkert.

In the hypothetical question of directly electing the chancellor, AfD leader Alice Weidel leads with 21% (-3), followed by Christian Union candidate Friedrich Merz with 20% (unchanged), Chancellor Olaf Solz (SPD) with 16% ( +1) and Greens candidate Robert Hambeck with 14% (unchanged).