President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term with a stronger presence on the world stage than when he was sworn in eight years ago. The world that awaits him, however, is very different and more threatening than when he left the presidency four years ago.

Trump’s second term under the slogan “America First” is said to have references mainly on the domestic front. Deporting millions of undocumented immigrants was one of his top campaign pledges, and his initial appointments suggest he is taking that proclamation seriously. The proposal, however, raises many practical and political questions.

Managing the domestic economy through tax and spending cuts and regulatory changes was another key promise. Polls suggest the economy — primarily inflation — counted more than other issues in Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. But many economists have said Trump’s economic agenda — tariffs and expanding tax cuts — could lead to a new round of inflation and more debt. Deportations will also disrupt the economy.

Trump has also pledged to balance the civil service. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the initiative which includes cost reduction and government efficiency. The two have big ambitions and, seemingly, the president-elect’s blessing. However, they face multiple challenges before they can deliver more than token change.

However, Trump will also face foreign policy challenges. He will face a world of chaos and conflict: a protracted war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin more hostile than ever and a Middle East still in turmoil after more than 15 months of war, with Iran weakened, Syria without Bashar al-Assad and Israel stronger militarily.

China presents other challenges for Trump, who has threatened it with significant new tariffs as it faces serious economic problems and military ambitions. As a sign of his intentions, Trump plans to include several anti-China hawks in his incoming administration. Meanwhile, the governments of key US allies in Europe, particularly France and Germany, are weakened, with right-wing, populist parties on the rise.

Trump prides himself on his negotiating skills. His approach to foreign policy during his first term seemed more personal than strategic. He prefers to deal with autocrats rather than working with traditional alliances. In his second term, he will likely find it more difficult to work with the likes of Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

Daniel Benjamin, president of the American Academy in Berlin, said one of the biggest changes since Trump last took office was the “axis of resistance,” which includes Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Korea.

As one former European diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the internal deliberations said, “It’s not like the old Cold War, but you can see a global pattern of unrest and tension.” In this environment, Trump’s opponents are seen as less willing to make short-term deals that benefit the incoming president.

Ivo Daalder, managing director of the Chicago Council on World Affairs and a former US ambassador to NATO, said: “The big issue is that Russia is at war with the West.” He said Putin is focused on subduing Ukraine, with the long-term goal of regaining Russia’s strategic position lost at the end of the Cold War.

“This means that Putin is a very different character,” Dalder said. “More isolated. More single-minded than he might have been when Trump last met with him.”

The war in Ukraine could become Trump’s first test, given the battlefield situation there, the depletion of Ukrainian forces and waning US support for continued aid to Kiev.

Trump said during the campaign that he could make a deal to end the war in a day. The reality is different. The concern among European analysts is that Putin will make maximalist demands and that Trump, eager to strike a deal, may concede too much.

Trump’s potential moves on Ukraine are causing significant concern among US allies in Europe, who were part of the coalition originally created by President Joe Biden, and who have their own security concerns. Will Trump sell out the Ukrainians with a deal that effectively destroys their sovereignty? Could Ukraine be forced to give up territory in exchange for guarantees linking it to the West?

Trump has an opportunity to help reshape the Middle East, but there are at least two big questions. First, to what extent will he support Israel in ways that Biden has not? Second, what will be his attitude towards Iran? Will he see an opportunity for negotiation or will he take a very hard line approach? The appointment of Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel, who is strongly pro-Israel, has been interpreted as a sign that he will yield to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more than Biden.

When Trump takes office some US allies will be weakened and absorbed by domestic problems. French President Emmanuel Macron has faced a series of political defeats in recent months. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government collapsed. South Korea’s government is in turmoil following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced tremors when his deputy president resigned.

In Germany and France, far-right parties are on the rise, and Musk recently sparked controversy with an op-ed that called the AfD (Alternative for Germany) that country’s “last glimmer of hope.” In Britain, Musk has been a vocal critic of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and flirted with the populist hard-right Reform Party. Party leader Nigel Farage, a Trump ally, has even appealed to Musk for financial support for his party.

Europeans will deal with Trump differently today than at the beginning of his last term. His second victory came as a surprise to many European analysts and his agenda is now being taken more seriously than ever. Trump’s threats against NATO have caused concern, as has the prospect of new tariffs on America’s European allies.

Among foreign policy analysts, there is a sense that Trump enters his second term better prepared to deliver on his foreign policy pronouncements. And, they say, Trump is starting with some clear advantages to bolster his ability to shape events around the world, but with perhaps less room for tension.

Dan Balz is a chief correspondent at the Washington Post. He has served as the paper’s deputy national editor, political editor and White House correspondent.