Countless times during this 15-month war in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamasit appeared that a hostage deal was close, but none as close as in recent weeks, when Hamas released the names of the 34 hostages being discussed in the negotiations.

As The Jerusalem Post reports in its analysis, there are many reasons why this time there might finally be a deal: all 24 organized Hamas factions are long gone, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) long ago occupied its Corridor Philadelphia, the military has begun cutting off half of northern Gaza from the rest, Hezbollah and Syria have withdrew from the war, Iran has been significantly weakened by Israeli strikes, and Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar is dead.

However, the most important recent development is the threat of the incoming US president Donald Trump that hell will come if no deal is reached before his inauguration on January 20.

Trump’s inauguration is a lever of pressure for both Hamas and Israel.

Other pressure points for Israel are: The IDF has already taken almost all available military actions against Hamas, including intensified operations in parts of northern Gaza.

Strategically, not much has changed, and for the first time since mid-2024, Hamas appears to be recruiting new fighters faster than the IDF can kill or capture old ones. Moreover, there is not much more the IDF can do to weaken Hamas’ allies. In recent months, the IDF has been experiencing daily and weekly casualties in Gaza, which, along with the ongoing damage to Israel’s economy due to the war and the gradual loss of Israeli hostages over time, continue to put pressure on the country.

Mossad director David Barnea was personally sent back to Qatar to try to finalize the negotiations at the junior level.

The hostage deal is not guaranteed

So why might a pre-Trump inauguration deal fail?

Despite the fact that Trump is now the most powerful person in the world, he has very little power over Hamas. How much power he has over Israel is also debatable.

As for Hamas, since no one expects the US to use military force directly against the group and America has never been part of its financial support, there are few levers of serious pressure.

Also, Hamas can watch its recent public statements about threatening to take Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Canada and conclude that it sometimes makes many statements that it does not follow through on.

Some believe that if there is no deal when he takes office, he will give Israel a deadline to end the war – whether there is a deal on the hostages or not – because he is against wars.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can also bet that Trump will not want a public spat with a figure who received an unusual number of ovations in the US Congress, mostly from Republicans, when he came to speak there last year.

At the negotiating level, it is not clear that there is any overlap between the idea of ​​the minimum deal that Netanyahu wants and the idea of ​​the minimum deal that Hamas wants.

In the May-August negotiations, Hamas abandoned its demand that Israel withdraw from Gaza before negotiations could resume or before the 1st phase of the transfer of some hostages. Since then, according to reports, Hamas has also backed away from its willingness to give up about 18 hostages in Phase 1, to a larger number, perhaps as many as 34 during this phase. Hamas has also since reportedly agreed to allow Israel to maintain some small presence in the Philadelphia Corridor during Phase 1.

Hamas insists on ending the war

But Hamas still insists that part of the deal must include a guarantee of an end to the war as part of Israel receiving the remaining hostages, and that this commitment must be made in advance, even if it comes later.

Saying he wants to be sure Hamas will not return to control of Gaza and that finding a political alternative to Hamas is not possible as long as the group maintains even disorganized military cores, Netanyahu said he would not commit to ending the war not even at this stage after so many Israeli military achievements.

There are also smaller disagreements over how the deal would begin, given that Hamas, which now appears to be led by Yahya Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, says it has lost contact with some of its various groups holding hostages.

Recent negotiations have focused on some brief period of days of ceasefire at the beginning, during which Hamas could move freely to determine which hostages from the list of 34 are still alive (some are expected to be dead).

There were reports that Israel demanded some kind of small gesture by releasing some hostages in exchange for even this period of days of ceasefire.

There is also some smaller debate about whether some Israeli soldiers can be part of the Phase 1 “humanitarian release”, along with women, children and the elderly.

What the sides appear to be considering is the possibility of a prolonged Phase 1, longer than the originally discussed 42 or 60 days, long enough for Hamas to claim that it has achieved an end to the war and short enough for Netanyahu to claim that it didn’t end the war.

If the sides reach a deal within the next eight days, it may be because Trump’s threats may finally become more specific.

If not, then without more concrete threats from Trump, which he can only make when he takes office, this ambiguous, longer-term Phase 1 deal may not be sealed before January 20. Trump’s “there will be hell” is too vague.

Trump may need to apply specific pressure on one or both sides to get them to back down on some issues.

Until then, the hostage negotiations may continue without any new apparent date for agreement or any event to change the situation.