A new world is being born. The hope of peaceful relations dissipates. Instead, we have Russia’s war on Ukraine, threats of nuclear disaster, a mobilized West, an alliance of autocracies, unprecedented economic sanctions, and a massive energy and food shock. Nobody knows what will happen. But we know this looks like a disaster.
It is natural to look for someone to accuse. For many, the culprit is NATO’s expansion into central and eastern Europe. An important voice is that of John Mearsheimer, the renowned “realist” scholar, who blames the US decision to open up the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO in 2008. I agree and disagree.
The mistake was ambiguity. The offer should only have been made when Ukraine joined as a full member. But I supported NATO’s expansion to Russia’s old satellites because good fences make good neighbors. Russia knows that if it invades a NATO member there will be war. This was not the case in Ukraine. That’s why this attack seemed like an easy option for the Kremlin despot.
As for why Vladimir Putin did this, one answer is that he runs a failed regime. Only an empire can justify its rule. Russia’s economy, dependent on raw materials, has fallen far behind Poland’s. It’s a rentier’s paradise. Today, these rentiers are Putin’s henchmen and Boris Yeltsin-era “oligarchs.” Ukraine went bankrupt economically, too. But it is democratic. For Putin, this aspiration is intolerable.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, many expected a world driven by cooperation and mutually beneficial exchanges. But the great power struggle has always been waiting to erupt. The United States was intoxicated by its “unipolar moment.” China has become more powerful and authoritarian under Xi Jinping. Putin brooded over his resentments, finally invading a country he considered himself the owner. We hear echoes of the First World War. So it was Austria, the weaker partner, and not Germany, that started the conflict. Today it is Russia, the weakest partner in its alliance with China.
The support promised by China risks turning the dangers created by Russia’s war into a catastrophe. This would turn the world into two blocks, with costly economic and security consequences. But a mobilized West is still much stronger. The impact of Western sanctions demonstrates this. A unified West diminishes Russia in every measure except military personnel and nuclear warheads. Even with the addition of China, the West is significantly more powerful, except in numbers. However, a lasting clash between the West and an authoritarian bloc of Russia and China must be avoided, if possible. It would be extremely dangerous.
Today, then, we see a world in transformation. Consider the challenges ahead.
More obviously, the war in Ukraine must end, which is an attack simultaneously on a peaceful country, democracy and world order. China should help Russia out of its nightmare. It is not difficult to understand why she supports Putin. Among other things, its leaders certainly share his contempt for democracies. But these are huge mistakes. As history has often demonstrated, free societies are powerful when mobilized because they enjoy the support of their populations.
It is also essential to manage the coming economic crisis. The combination of war, supply shocks and high inflation is destabilizing, as the world learned in the 1970s. Financial instability today seems very likely, too. Monetary authorities cannot ignore high inflation, however. Hence governments will have to employ fiscal support targeted at the vulnerable.
Furthermore, the West must strengthen its defenses, on all fronts – military, energy, cyber and economic. It is inevitable, unfortunately, that in a conflict with huge ramifications, security requirements come first. This is not the world any sane person wants. But that’s where we live today. It is vital that the European Union becomes a real security power. She comfortably possesses the demographic and economic scale to balance Russia. The post-Brexit UK must participate as fully as possible. The United States needs that European assistance as it will also be dealing with Xi’s worrying China.
Despite these pressing needs, we must try not to abandon everything that has been achieved in the last three decades. We are not at war with ordinary Russians and Chinese who simply hope for a better future. On the contrary, in the long run they could be our allies. Sanctions need to be targeted as far as possible. The future of trade and other peaceful exchanges will, however, depend on how – and after how long – this crisis ends.
We need to remember the broader concerns that all human beings share – the global environment, managing the pandemic, economic development and peace itself. We cannot survive without cooperation. If Putin’s madness proves anything, this is it. The world of “might is right” is not a world we can live in safely. As their nuclear threats show.
After the Battle of Austerlitz in 1805, William Pitt the Younger presciently said: “Roll the map [da Europa]; it will not be needed in these ten years.” Russia’s war on Ukraine has similarly transformed the map of our world. A prolonged period of stagflation seems certain, with great potential effects for financial markets. In the long term, the emergence of two blocs with profound differences between them is likely, as is an accelerated reversal of globalization and the sacrifice of economic interests to geopolitics.Even nuclear war is, unfortunately, conceivable.
Pray for a miracle in Moscow. Without it, the road ahead will be long and hard.
Translation of Luiz Roberto M. Goncalves
