US President Donald Trump did not waste time last week before threatening duties almost any important commercial partner US, in a demonstration of executive power reminiscent of the attack on his first term in world trade.

But the Possible second trade war of Trump is very different From his first. The president’s ambitions for a rearrangement of world trade are wider. The opposition – interior and abroad – is weaker. And the economic risks he seems ready to face can be greater.

In the first days of his second term, Trump promised, or threatened, to impose duties on more than $ 2 trillion of foreign products, About two thirds of all that Americans buy from abroad. He ordered MPs of his cabinet until April 1 to complete a comprehensive analysis of US trade policy, including agreements he negotiated during his first term with China, Canada and Mexico • world taxation • and exchange rates , all with the look of the development of a “sturdy and rejuvenated” new approach.

New duties have not yet been imposed. But the president examines new taxes on imports in almost every public appearance of his swearing -in. And the studies he ordered hint at “creative uses” of presidential powers, including one Possible doubling of the tax rate For some foreign and legal persons.

“I think the situation is very different right now. Threats are much more extensive. The sense of legal restrictions seems much smaller, “said Ed Gresher, who led the financial research unit at the US Commercial Representative office during Trump’s first term. ‘This suggests that he feels as president that he has the right to create A completely new tariff system alone. “

Trump seems almost certain that he will act earlier in his second term than in his first, when he waited a whole year before imposing duties on washing machines and foreign solar collectors. He threatened to impose duties on China, Canada and Mexico on February 1, while implying that Europe, Russia, Brazil, India and many other countries could also see their goods to be taxed.

But with his top officials related to trade still awaiting confirmation from the Senate, Trump will probably wait to act until his deadline April 1st to complete the multilateral commercial review.

‘Part of the president’s strategy is to cause uncertainty »; commented by Maurus Briliad, a senior adviser to DGA Group, a business counseling company.

A more homogenized government team on trade makes a accelerated program more likely in the second term. Trump’s first term faced harsh internal conflicts between the faces in favor and against the duties, which delayed the action.

This time, key advisers, including Scott Bessed, who is being screened for financial, and Howard Lutnik, who is in charge of commerce, are steadily supporting new taxes on imports, even if they differ in the details of the application.

“One of the biggest differences is that they do not seem to be arguing with each other. It seems that there is much more consensus, “observed Lori Wallace, director of the non -profit company Rethink Trade. “There is no one who is really trying to shake the whole idea in the air.”

Trump’s team in the second term also has a different composition than that in his first trade war. Robert Laithaizer, Trump’s main trading negotiator in the first term, does not have an official role in the current government, although he continues to advise the president, according to two people who know the matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity in the Washington Post.

Trump appointed Jameson Green, the former Lithaiser chief, as his new commercial representative. Greer, a well -trained trade lawyer, a younger generation than Laithaizer, asked for her Enlargement of duties in Chinese products to include products manufactured by Chinese companies in other countries.

Trump now promotes duties to achieve a wider set of targets than during his first term, when he focused heavily on reducing the commercial deficit and dealing with those he described as unfair commercial practices of China. He began his attack on the second term, focusing on non -financial goals, such as limiting irregular migration and drug trafficking at the US border.

One primary objective is to use duties to raise hundreds of billions of dollars a year to offset the loss of public revenue from the extension of 2017 tax cuts ending at the end of this year.

It’s not that Trump himself has changed. It remains committed to bilateral commercial deficits with individual nations, which most economists consider insignificant. He continues to talk about the encouragement of industries to relocate to the United States. And some of his goals are contradictory: he wants to discourage imports by increasing tariff prices. But high imports of imports need to raise significant revenue.

“Now the money is needed. It didn’t need the money in the first term. Are now important for what he declares »said William Reins, an expert in commercial policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

But after Trump’s victory with the popular vote in November and the lack of a coherent response of the Democratic Party, the environment he is now facing is more favorable.

Trump’s tariff plans are taking a weaker position now than after his first election. Following the November elections, corporate executives who once criticized or criticized him, rushed to the president’s Mar A Lago resort in southern Florida to recover.

For two generations, most mainstream economists saw duties, which are taxes that Americans pay to imported goods, as financially ineffective. But the decades -long consensus in favor of the global economic integration, which was affected during Trump’s first term, was further eroded by Biden’s rule.

Even some of the most “globalized” American CEOS respond to the shift to economic nationalism. JPMorgan Chase Managing Director Jamie Dimon, who criticized Trump’s first duties, changed tones last week when asked about new imports. ‘If it is a little inflationary, But good for national security, let it be. I mean, overcome it ‘, He typically mentioned the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Businesses that fought the tariff proposals during Trump’s first term have greatly accepted the fact that others are coming. Their hope now is not so much to persuade the president to abandon his plans, but to be smarter in their implementation.

‘Many more people see that As part of the new regularity. We are here right now, “said Steven Lamar, president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association. “There is no discussion to stop these policies. Has to do with policies, so that they have the maximum possible price. “

Some of the president’s main goals abroad – such as China and the European Union – They are unable to fight a total trade war.

The euro zone is expected to grow at an annual rate just 1% this yearaccording to the International Monetary Fund.

China’s growth prospects are better, but more precarious. In the midst of a “hangover” of a real estate bubble, the Chinese economy is in danger of falling into a debt trap, where weak demand is causing prices, making businesses and consumers repaying their debts, the IMF warned this month.

Chinese manufacturers produce more products than they can sell in their home country. Exporters reduce prices to boost sales to Americans and Europeans of all kinds, from games to clean energy products. China’s growing dependence on exports she leaves her vulnerable In additional duties, from 10% to 60% proposed by Trump.

However, all the changes after 2018 are not favored. The global economy, for example, is more prone to inflation than when Trump first tried to remodel trade flows, making the imposition of significant commercial restrictions on greater risk, according to the IMF.

In 2018, it had been decades since consumers were afraid of inflation. Businesses usually could not increase prices.

Now, having suffered the highest inflation of the last 40 years, consumers are more common to see prices go up. When the cost of companies is increasing, they can easily transfer higher prices to their customers.

Compared to 2018, the global landscape today reflects greater concern for fragile supply chains, geopolitical tensions and structural factors such as population aging and high levels of public debt – all of which could contribute to higher inflation, Gregory Dako, EY – Parthenon’s head economist.

“It puts us in a very different environment from what we were in 2018,” Dako observed. “The fundamental sizes of the world economy have changed.”