Donald Trump is not sure if Spain is an emerging market or not, as he recently asked if it is a BRICS country. But he is sure that he will “soon” impose duties on the European Union, an additional threat when he has already enforced taxes on imports from Canada and Mexico. Such a move would be economically painful, divisive and potentially threatened to threaten the US’s close relationship with the EU. What can Europeans do about it if anything else?

The first thing the EU has to do is take Trump seriously. His attack on US neighbors should not be perceived as a decision that Trump made hot and that postponement of his implementation marks a retreat. The Trump government believes that strengthening the US well -being will be achieved by breaking the chains that link them monetary, military and commercially to the global system. Duties are an integral part of this vision.

This makes the EU a good goal given its commercial surplus. The insistence that the US will only harm itself by imposing duties on a $ 1.3 trillion -m in a trade relationship, however accurate it is, it is unlikely to change Trump’s attitude.

European leaders, such as Emmanuel Macron and Olf Saltz, who have tried not to oppose Trump, are beginning to realize the situation. Their most decisive recent rhetoric about the need to take a clear position reinforces the European Commission in planning an answer. There will be a negotiating approach, as shown by the placements to reduce the trade divide by buying more US products, but if this is not enough, then the choice of retaliation must be put on the table. The controversies are inevitably painful and the EU should move carefully given the bad situation of its two largest economies. But one must define and defend European interests.

You expect a gradual answer: a re -imposition of duties on steel and aluminum in March, possibly a targeted list of US products. And a message that they could take more measures, such as the appeal of the Bruegel thinking tank for a broader duty list.

At this point things could be very bad. The above scenario presupposes a centrifugal force that unites 27 EU members. However, a trade war will also liberate a centrifugal force that will divide them. Special duties may have a greater impact on some countries than in others – Germany’s exposure to cars is greater than in French cheese, for example – and the block is weaker than it was in Trump’s first term. Looking at the US 10% duty scenario, Nomura Holdings Inc. He estimates that they will hurt the growth of the European Gross Domestic Product by 0.3% over the next two years. If the growing support of voters in the populist parties that adopt a Trump approach is taken into account, then we are talking about components of a larger social and national turmoil against the Brussels elite. Trump may seek to exploit this by offering concessions to countries and companies based on their willingness to “comply”. It can impose customs duties on NATO members with the promise of adjustments according to their commitments to defense spending.

That is why foresight and strategic planning – a major disadvantage for the EU – must be the last part of the puzzle. In a recent article by FT, Ursula von der Liene and Christine Lagarde have pledged to promote growth through less bureaucracy, more innovation and relaxing monetary policy. Strengthening the inner front will be critical to avoid sliding in technocratic habits that left the EU vulnerable to pandemic and war, but it will also be a reminder that Member States are geopolitical and economically stronger together.

And if Trump actually seeks the distribution of defensive weights, then it will have to be heard: the best way for the EU to respond in the long run to commercial threats is to invest in its power, with the increase in its 500 billion -euro defense fund (516 euros. billions of dollars). Even in trade, the best defense is literally defense.

Lionel Laurent is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion who writes about finances.