While the United States seems to be in open confrontation with Kiev and make it clear that Ukraine is not going to join NATO, Europeans are trying to guarantee the security of the war country.

The idea of ​​sending European troops to the country first came from French President Macron last year. Implementation of this proposal now seems more likely than ever – recently the United Kingdom said it intends to send troops to Ukraine.

Which countries could send troops?

Several European leaders have indirectly reportedly mentioned that a prerequisite for this is a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine – and experts agree.

“A military force cannot be developed in Ukraine without a viable agreement,” historian Lawrence Friedman told DW. “And there should also be no talk of a peace force, which will be neutral. It will be a deterrent, a guarantor force, which will act deterrent to Russia “or take action if the latter violates the agreement.

France and Britain support this idea, and Sweden has also expressed its intention to also send troops when peace has been established.

Experts estimate that an alliance of European states could be created to send troops to Ukraine, but this will happen outside NATO.

However, some of the largest European forces have not yet taken a specific decision. The German Chancellor Allaf Saltz has not taken a clear position in the face of the federal elections – though the Christian Democrats are open to the idea.

Poland is one of Ukraine’s most important supporters so far, but says it will not send Polish troops. “We do not intend to send Polish soldiers to Ukrainian territory,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. “However, we will provide logistical and political support to states that will probably want to provide such guarantees in the future.”

How many troops do they need?

A key question that arises, however, beyond the political will of European states is whether the allies will be able to send several soldiers to guard the Ukrainian border. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, formerly NATO Secretary -General, told the BBC that Europe should gather 50,000 to 100,000 troops.

However, so far no country of what they seem to intend to participate in the initiative has provided any evidence of how many troops it intends to send.

According to Friedman, the United Kingdom is available to send up to 10,000 troops the maximum. The expert also points out that “for every soldier needs one who will go through training, while the other will be in recovery. Therefore, I estimate that at least 100,000 troops will be needed in general. ” And the number of troops must be large enough, “for Russia to take them seriously”.

The gathering of tens of thousands of soldiers and sending them to a war zone is a controversial political venture. “Ground troops will be threatened. And so the states that have developed them will also be threatened, especially in the context of hybrid attacks or even targeted murders, “Rafael Los, a security expert and a partner of the European Foreign Relations Council (ECFR), told DW. “Putin will want to test the deal.”

In addition, EU states do not have enough human resources to cope with NATO’s own plans on the defense of the Member States in the event of a Russian attack. Germany, for example, is doubting whether it should restore compulsory military service.

“By summer NATO will send some goals to governments. Spiegel said in June that Germany should probably have “272,000 troops to implement alliance plans”, “Los adds. reached 203,000 by 2031. “

The US Contribution Necessary

Experts estimate that Europeans are not so much needed by the UN acceptance to develop such a force as the US, which is even indirectly supported by the idea of ​​a deterrent military force – and only then is this plan worth the plan. . Last week, US Secretary of Defense Pitt Hesseghetdeten that NATO would not participate in the development of such a military force, however, leaving the scope for Europeans to act autonomously.

Both Friedman and Los believe that there may be a possibility of indirect support for the US project, which could, for example, provide European logistical support and air help. Keith Kogg, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, asked Europeans to give a certain number of troops that will develop in the context of the peacekeeping operation.

Most Europeans also believe that US involvement in the project is crucial. “A recent poll in Germany has shown that 59% of respondents support the development of German troops in a European mission to observe the truce between Ukraine and Russia,” but a prerequisite for supporting the US as well, as the German Institute of International Affairs and Security and Security points out. (SWP). “Almost all European states reject the execution of such a business without the US involvement, because they think the risk will be very high. […] Being the leadership of Britain and France is not enough for most Europeans. “

Participation of Turkish troops?

European states should, however, persuade Russia to accept the development of such a force in the context of the general peace agreement. That is why Turkish troops are being considered to be included in the peacekeeping power, as Turkey has been a balancing role throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine and maintains a friendly attitude towards the Russians despite being a NATO member.

According to Friedman, “Turkey is a NATO member state and is able to provide the necessary number of troops. And this is something that Russia could tolerate. “

Curated by: George Passas