The loss of US support will be a blow, but Ukraine has the means to continue to fight with the help of its European allies.
In the face of an unthinkable thought, European leaders have been in recent weeks: to stop the US from equipping Ukraine. Donald Trump’s threats have bothered Europeans who are now struggling to show their support in Ukraine, both diplomatically and militarily while trying to persuade the US president not to make his threats.
More than twelve European leaders were in Kiev Monday, on the occasion of a three -year period from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, at the same time that the EU is working for a military aid package worth at least 20 billion euros.
“The strongest power of Trump in Ukraine is to threaten the non -delivery of weapons. We have, in my opinion, six months before we really begin to feel the lack of weapons at the forefront, “former Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmitro Koulempa told Politico. Volodimir Zelenski is also relatively reassuring who believes that while loss of US support will be a major blow, Ukraine will be able to continue to fight for many months.
But the concern among Europeans about Trump’s intentions is evident.
As Politico commented, a month after his swearing -in, Trump began peace talks with Russia (without consulting the allies), falsely claimed that Ukraine started the war, called Zelenski’s “dictator” who had cheated on the US dollars and now abolishes decades of its countries. And Europe has understood all this. For this reason, Germany’s next chancellor Friedrich Mertz said Europe should gain complete “independence” from the United States in the field of defense.
There is no doubt that US help is very important. When Congress refused a year ago to approve more help for Kiev, the Ukrainian army had serious deficiencies of ammunition and air defense that allowed Russia to exercise its advantage along the first line.
The state of the ground
Ukraine has Europe’s largest army except Russia, with 980,000 soldiers said Zelenski earlier this year. They maintain more than 1,500 kilometers of front against Russian troops, as well as about 400 square kilometers in the Russian area of Kursk.
Vladimir Putin, for his part, wants to extend the Russian army by 180,000 troops to reach 1.5 million, already North Korean troops have been added to the battlefields.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has lost 46,000 soldiers killed in the battle and 390,000 injured on the battlefield, Zelenski said this month, though some analysts believe that the real number of losses are larger. Estimates of Russian losses range from 600,000 to 750,000 dead or injured.
Russia is suffering more than 1,000 losses a day as it progresses too late along the forehead, occupying 4,168 square kilometers in 2024 – about twice the size of Luxembourg – according to the Institute for the study of war.
Russia is also supplied by Iran’s allies and North Korea Drones, rockets, artillery systems and up to 8 million artillery missiles.
Russia’s military spending last year was foreseen at $ 145.9 billion, or 6.7% of the country’s GDP, according to the latest Military Balance report from the International Strategic Studies Institute (IISS).
The huge Russian army was able to absorb huge casualties during the war. Iiss estimated that 1,400 main tanks were out of combat, but the country is still able to use the declining stocks of the Soviet era and the increase in domestic production.
Money, weapons and ammunition
In fact, however, without external help, Ukraine would have fallen for a long time.
Ukraine plans to spend 50 billion euros, or about 26% of its GDP, on defense and security next year.
According to data from the Kiel Institute, from February 2022 until the end of 2024, the US spent 64 billion euros on military support in Ukraine, while Europe – including the United Kingdom and Norway – contributed almost € 62 billion. Most of this money was made available to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, although there is increasing interest in countries signing direct contracts with Ukrainian defense companies.
Since the start of the war, Ukraine has received a tanks, artillery and fighter aircraft of the Soviet era from former Warsaw Pact, American F-16 fighters, Abrams battle tanks and Patriot air defense systems, as well as Polish Mobile Mirage aircraft, German Leopard battle tanks, French-Italian Samp/T air defense systems and more.
Europe also supplied Ukraine with a million artillery missiles last year, after months of delays. This year the goal is to supply another 1.5 million missiles. For their part, the US has sent more than 3 million 155mm artillery missiles to Ukraine.
In addition, Ukraine becomes a world leader in drone production, from cheap first -person drones used in huge numbers along the front line to chase Russian soldiers and armor and vehicles, up to longer range drones, stylists, Deep in Russia.
A war without Washington
The numbers speak for themselves about what US support in Ukraine is, three years now and how important it is. So what could happen if the US eventually stops helping Ukraine?
A US withdrawal would not only cost about half of its weapons in Ukraine, but would also deprive the country of many of its “most effective”, according to Ben Barry, a superior partner for land fighting in Iiss.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstis Budrys told Politico that there is “certain weapons, specific equipment [που] Europe cannot replace the US ‘, such as air defense systems and some large -scale ammunition.
“It will take us time and we work on it … It’s a challenge because there are no immediate substitutes, but we can intervene financially to help Ukraine produce more the same,” he said.
Although Europe has increased its defense spending in recent years and has made efforts to increase supplies and domestic ammunition production, US loss will create a gap.
“Europeans have a maximum of six months to move on,” Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush said, adding that “they just don’t have what Americans have.”
When Iiss’s Francois Heisbourg was asked if Europe could replace a US funding deficit, he said ‘[σε] Financial terms? The answer is yes, it is possible. What is possible politically, if there will be the will to do so, this can be discussed. “
Zelenski said last week that Ukraine’s domestic weapons production is growing and currently gaining 30% of Ukraine – mainly drones, electronic warfare and artillery systems – but acknowledged that this percentage is not enough.
Even if Washington leaves Kiev, Ukraine will continue to fight, said Nick Reynolds, a land -fighter researcher at Think Tank Royal United Services Institute in London.
‘Ukraine continues to keep the first line with its own units, with its equipment, [και ενώ] In many ways it is still based on Western support for ammunition, it also produces a significant proportion in itself, “he said.
Zelenski also insists that his troops will maintain their place, no matter what Trump will do. However, no matter how brave it sounds and despite the belief that his country can do it, Ukraine eagerly wants to continue to provide the US, concludes Politico.
Source :Skai
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
