Common elements between it Soviet-Finnish war in 1939-40 and of the war in Ukraine point out the Financial Times and military analysts who quote their opinion.
The British newspaper estimates that perhaps the outcome of also known as “Winter war” to offer a possible end to the current conflict as well.
The Russians invaded Finland at November 30, 1939shortly after its start World War II, citing the need to protect its own territory. Although with a clear superiority of forces, for two months they met strong resistance from the Finnish forces. Later, however, they regrouped, changed tactics and, beginning to achieve their military objectives, reached an agreement in which they annexed almost 10% of Finland territory.
The Financial Times points out that so far failures of the Russians on the Ukrainian front and their losses have masked the wear and tear of Ukrainian troops. “In addition, although the Russian forces have not done well, they are regrouping and there is little indication that President Vladimir Putin is backing down from his strategic goals,” the paper added.
RUSI Institute analyst Sindart Kausal says something similar happened in 1940 and that in the end with “re-escalation and permanent deterioration” of the opponent Soviets secured a “very favorable peace”. He points out that the Ukrainians face many challenges, while the FT also quotes the recent remark of the French commander of the armed forces that the Russian forces could “level” the Ukrainian ones.
The newspaper quotes estimates that both the Russians and the Ukrainians have lost 1/10 of their soldiers so farwith many tanks and vehicles on the Ukrainian side also damaged.
It is also noted that the flow western armaments to the Ukrainian army seems to have slowed down, something that should change quickly. “Otherwise, Ukrainian fighters will face Russian tanks with machine guns,” said Paul Grant of a Ukrainian non-governmental organization.
They are also noted the blows in weapons and aircraft repair facilities by the Russian forces as additional factors that may agree that the Ukrainian resistance is in danger of becoming less effective over time.
The newspaper further comments that because the Kremlin presents the war as a “special operation” can not openly project images of destruction of Ukraine, which may also limit the true picture of Ukrainian losses.
Western military official tells the newspaper that the apparent Russian reorganization is aided by the increased use of drones in the last week, which fly over Ukraine collecting information, tracking movements and making reconnaissance of targets passed to Russian soldiers.
At the same time, the general secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense Custy Salm notes that the Russians are not taking up defensive positions, which would be the first sign that they are worried about the troops’ supply lines.
Reference is also made to the possible use of more Russian soldiers from the ranks of the drawers who complete their term on April 1.
THE Gustav Gressel from a European think tank estimates that “by mid-April we could see the resumption of large-scale Russian military operations”.
The FT estimates, based on analysts, that the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine would be a victory equivalent to the occupation of Kiev, based on Karl von Klausevich’s war theory that the destruction of forces rather than the occupation of cities leads to a faster victory in war.
In any case, the newspaper emphasizes, few believe that the war in Ukraine will end soon.
Mr. Kausal from RUSI typically comments that “even in the best case scenario it will be a war with many operational pauses … which will probably last for a long time”.
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