The most intense reactions to the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu were in Europe of the Turks, who live abroad, with the example of Germany.

Protest rallies were held in many cities by immigrant organizations and Republican Party representatives.

However, as Channer Aver from the Center for Turkish Studies noted, these reactions do not “touch” Erdogan. What might have bothered him would be a coordinated and specific reaction from the EU countries, which never came and is not projected to come.

As several reports point out in the German press, if the Turkish citizens were waiting for a strong response from Europe to the coup d’etat of the Mayor of Constantinople then they are getting rid of it. From Brussels came a rather trivial statement about the need to respect the rules of the rule of law. The German government has issued a statement referring to a “significant retreat for democracy”, but avoided measures, such as calling the Turkish ambassador to Berlin to the Foreign Ministry.

Just … worried

The Chancellor Olf Saltz was a little sharply in his latest appearance in a European Council, asking “to stop this immediately”. But he is experienced enough to know that such statements are not going to upset the Turkish president. The French Foreign Ministry has announced that it was “deeply concerned”, and something similar was also stressed by Commission President Ursula von der Layen. But worry is just a … feeling. No act.

Turkey’s president may, on the one hand, feel threatened by the most serious and calculating opponent he had to face in years of construction of his omnipotence, but he believes – as everyone agrees in Berlin – that Turkey’s international context and role allow him to stretch his borders.

Human rights against geopolitical

It is typical of Hurrican Asli Aksoi’s assessment of the Center for Applied Turkish Studies in Berlin: “There is an EU criticism, including Germany, but these voices are very weak at the moment. The US is of no interest and Europe has no upper hand right now due to geopolitical. Erdogan’s regime knows this. “

It is no coincidence that just a few days ago the Polish Prime Minister, who was practicing EU presidency, Donald Tusk, had been in Ankara, and had discussed with Erdogan about Turkey’s involvement in plans for a new security and defense architecture in Europe. This process is of particular importance to Ankara, as the intense presence and mobility of its diplomats had shown at the recent Security Summit in Munich.

On the EU side, Imamoglou arrests may be considered an obstacle, which may brake cooperation, but will not undo it. It is indicative that a few hours before the arrest of Imamoglou, Spiegel magazine analyzed precisely because after the distancing of Trump from Europe, Turkey is significantly upgraded as an ally.

And on Friday, the Presidents of the European Council and the Commission, Antonio Costa and Ursula von der Laienne, at a teleconference they organized the issue, made it clear that Turkey could take part in the EU Defense Defense Program, along with Norway and Norway.

Who will eventually win

“The EU is again facing the challenge to reconcile its human rights agenda with geopolitical realities,” said Hussein Chichek, a Turkish expert at the University of Vienna, in the Rheinische Post.

Experts’ estimates are divided in relation to the consequences that this development may have on Turkey’s political life.

Some are reminiscent that Erdogan himself was arrested in 1990 as Mayor of Constantinople for a rather meaningless occasion and this was the beginning of his ejecting to power. Can something similar happen to Imamoglou?

Hurzan Asley Aksoi does not seem to believe it. He finds it more likely that because of the juncture, Erdogan’s risk will be rewarded. And the Europeans will be forced to continue to make the “wrong eyes” and work with him.