The strategy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to put in prison one of his most popular political opponents could have the opposite effect than the government is seeking.

When a large number of police officers arrived at the residence of the Mayor of Constantinople, Ekrem Iimoglou, to arrest him in the early morning raid of last week, his reaction was calm and decisive. Turkey’s largest city mayor, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has addressed a video message to his supporters, recording himself as he wore a white shirt and tie to be dressed properly for his arrest.

“A small group is trying to usurp the will of the people,” he said. “I’ll stand strong.”

A few days later, Imamoglu was officially arrested on corruption charges and led to a high security prison on the edge of the city ruled since 2019. Turkey’s interior ministry then removed him from the post of mayor, at the same time that the Republican party was at the same time as the Republican party. Voting.

Party officials said that 15 million people voted, saying that the vast majority came from non -party members. Since the arrest of Imamoglou, tens of thousands of people flooded the streets around the Istanbul Town Hall, rapidly spreading in many areas beyond the traditional Chp strongholds.

These include demonstrations in the special home of Imamoglou, Trabzon, which belongs to the northern, coastal area of ​​the Black Sea, from which Erdogan comes from and where he has some of his strongest supporters. Local media showed the weekend crowds to go down the streets by holding masks with Imoglou’s face, while Chp politicians called him “son of Trebizond” and “brother all of us”.

This popular support for the 54 -year -old Imoglou within Erdogan’s own electoral base is that he has established the former businessman as the president’s main opponent and the only politician who can call into question his power in the ballot box, the Guardian said. Imamoglu has rejected the comparison between himself and Erdogan, stating that he is an extremely social democrat and that their only common is common ancestry and love for football.

However, Imamoglu’s arrest is another point of comparison with that of Erdogan, which in the long run can weaken the Turkish president. Erdogan became the mayor of Constantinople in the mid -1990s, before imprisonment for a poem, and came out of prison, reinforcing his political profile at national level. And while he had been removed from his political rights, he overcame obstacles and became prime minister just four years after his release.

“We live again the political dramas of the 1990s, when Erdogan was the goal of the state, only this time Erdogan has become the state itself,” said Sonter Chagapta, an Erdogan biographer and an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“Imamoglou is the new Erdogan,” he added, noting that his opponent’s imprisonment could turn boomerang for the Turkish president.

Dr. Zia Meral, a lecturer at Soas University in London, said: “Erdogan often uses the phrase that if you win Istanbul, you win the nation and this reflects its own political course.”

“This means that if you can do a good job as the mayor of Constantinople, win the confidence of the people and offer work, then a national victory is much more likely and this is true for Imamoglou.”

The Turkish authorities have long been seeking to make it difficult for Imamoglou’s administration, announcing even his first election victory in 2019 before winning the second election with an even greater difference. He was subsequently imposed a political ban and a prison sentence, charged with attacking electoral executives after his initial victory, a decision against which he filed an appeal.

However, the administration of Turkey’s largest city was full of obstacles, as the government blocked many of Imamoglou’s policies that demanded federal approval, while Erdogan’s justice and development party fought him on all issues – from taxis to subway lines.

“All of our decisions are blocked,” he said in an interview three years ago, avoiding skillful questions about his presidential ambitions or the cost of the hand watch he usually wears, which, he said, is intended as a legacy for his son.

“Imamoglou has a political gift with voters, he is very accessible. It comes out as friendly and intelligent, “Maral said. “He has a wide displacement and is more adaptive to his perception than other Chp candidates.”

With Imamoglou now considered a “victim of a political campaign,” Maral added, this can increase his support, even among opposition supporters.

How the presidential campaign of Imoglou from the prison will evolve remains unclear. The elections are scheduled for 2028, although early voting is expected.

Validing his recent candidacy, Imoglou sent a message from prison to his supporters, who was also addressing his persecutors: “This excellent moment has scared a small group of malicious people. They are right to fear. “