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The hardening of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine at a time of stagnation in diplomatic negotiations reinforces the prediction that the conflict, which is in its 27th day, could still last for weeks.
With the war seemingly far from over, fears are also growing that the fighting will become even more destructive, with the use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
“The chances are small, but growing,” researcher Ulrich Kühn, a specialist in arms control at the University of Hamburg (Germany) and the Carnegie Fund for International Peace, told The New York Times on Monday (21).
For analysts, threats around the use of weapons of mass destruction in this conflict are, for now, a rhetorical strategy by Russia to show its war power in the face of Ukraine’s refusal to accept its ceasefire demands. If it doesn’t result in defeat, Kiev’s resistance has imposed at least a longer delay for Moscow to reach its goals in the territory it invaded on February 24.
Furthermore, the Kremlin is trying to show the West that it is not weakened and that it can, if it wants to, make use of more powerful equipment against the enemy. Three recent moves on the Russian side are considered indicative of this bet:
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over the weekend, the Putin administration announced that it had carried out two attacks with hypersonic missiles, equipment with a high range that can be used with both conventional and nuclear weapons;
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on Monday (21), pro-Russian separatists released videos that indicate the positioning for the region invaded by thermobaric rockets, the most destructive non-nuclear weapon in the Russian arsenal.
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In an interview on Tuesday (22), the Kremlin spokesman conditioned the use of nuclear weapons to an “existential threat to the country”, a reference to the expansion of NATO (Western military alliance) in surrounding nations. The guarantee that Ukraine will not join the organization is on Putin’s list of demands for an end to the war.
For Danielle Ayres, coordinator of the Graduate Program in International Relations at UFSC (Federal University of Santa Catarina) and vice-president of Abed (Brazilian Association of Defense Studies), “Russia, with its greater military power, reaffirms your attacking ability”.
In his assessment, the possibility of using unconventional weapons in Ukraine “is not unthinkable”, but for the time being, the escalation of the conflict must occur with techniques already known.
Do not get lost
“Russia will attack more harshly the areas in which it has an interest in conquering, which is the case of Mariupol. These attacks will happen in greater numbers, but still with conventional weapons”, he analyzes.
With the help of Professor Danielle Ayres, a specialist in defense matters at UFSC, and our reports, we explain other types of unconventional weapons and what is being discussed about them in this conflict:
Nuclear weapons
What are: Nuclear bombs can be strategic (with immense destructive potential, like the one dropped on Hiroshima by the US in 1945) or tactical, with a more restricted range and directed at localized targets.
Context: At the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia put its nuclear forces on combat alert. Moscow has already carried out tactical weapons attacks in the Chechen war in the 1990s.
According to the norms approved by Putin in 2020, the use of the nuclear arsenal can occur:
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if the country or any of its allies is attacked with nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction;
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in the case of aggression with conventional weapons, when “the very existence of the State is under threat” (the approach of NATO or its entry into the conflict is seen as a threat).
In time: Russia and the USA concentrate 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, a legacy of the first Cold War. Compare each one’s arsenal here.
Chemical and biological weapons
What are: Substances with toxic properties that aim to cause harm to an individual or a collective. Examples of chemical weapons are mustard gas, used in World War II, and Agent Orange, a herbicide used in the Vietnam War. Russia is accused of using this type of substance to try to poison opponents like Alexei Nalvani.
The context: Russia and the US have exchanged a series of accusations involving the intention to use chemical and biological weapons – these have the same function as chemical weapons, but made from agents such as viruses and bacteria.
Russia accuses the US of setting up a network of laboratories to study biological agents in Ukraine. The White House and NATO claim that this argument is an excuse by the Russians to use their chemical weapons.
“Now that Russia has made these false claims, we should all be on the lookout for Russia possibly using chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine. It’s a clear pattern,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on the 9th.
What happened this Tuesday (22)
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Zelensky said he could discuss the status of Crimea and breakaway areas if Putin agreed to meet;
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Ukrainian president says he invited Pope Francis to act as a mediator in the conflict;
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WHO said at least 62 attacks hit hospitals in Ukraine;
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A Russian journalist who won the Nobel Peace Prize said he will auction a medal and donate money to refugees in Ukraine.
picture of the day
What to see and hear to stay informed
