Javier Miley is facing difficult days.

A series of political defeats, unjustified errors and negative economic turns have brought the Argentinean chairman in the most difficult phase of his 16 months.

Following January’s unfortunate speech in Davos and the cryptocurrencies in February, the shameful defeat in Congress was followed last week, when the opposition voted against his two candidates for the Supreme Court. The vote was held while the liberal president was in the US, trying to meet President Donald Trump on the sidelines of a glittering event at Mar-A-Lago while world markets collapsed. But the meeting never took place and Miley returned to Buenos Aires without the coveted photo – but facing new questions about his time -consuming international outings.

More importantly, the total trade war between the US and China has made it even more difficult to stabilize Argentina’s fragile economy. If there is a country that traditionally has the consequences of international economic instability in Latin America, this is Argentina (this time followed by Bolivia and possibly Ecuador).

It is true that Miley’s impressive performance during the first year of governance, including a significant slowdown in inflation, budgetary discipline, faster than expected growth, and the remarkable decline in poverty indicators have put the economy. However, the country’s risk rates have been launched in recent weeks, as international stocks and government bonds have collapsed. The uncertainty about the country’s foreign exchange system is the main weakness in Miley’s great plan, with investors giving more and more in depreciation of the peso.

Tuesday’s announcement of a $ 20 billion deal with IMF staff for a 48 -month program, if approved by the Board of Directors this week as expected, is therefore a crucial step in supporting South America’s second largest economy. Miley will have to use this lifeline to rebuild the Central Bank’s stocks, to relax some of the restrictions on the foreign exchange market and to recover the initiative, which he has lost because of his government’s management weaknesses.

Indeed, the once unstoppable policy of the “machine” now looks like it seems alien and confused, a view that is reinforced by the constant changes of persons. In a way, this was predictable: Miley still leads an infinite, minority government. With the interim elections approaching, the opposition is trying to undermine the president’s acceptance by abandoning the attitude of understanding it had shown in 2024. Failure to achieve an alliance with the center -right party of former President Mauritius Mauritus means that the Maurice Maurus This year’s electoral clashes.

Polls show a slight decline in the popularity of Miley, who remains divisive: In a recent Atlasintel survey, 47% approved the president, while 49% condemned him. But the crucial element is that the president still has the greatest pure acceptance of all the key political leaders of Argentina (-3 percentage points, against -13 for former President Christina Fernandes De Kirchner, -26 for the Governor of Buenos Ares Aresa Ares Ares.

With his three main opponents participating in the election campaign, the president has the opportunity to be presented as the subversive candidate fighting the worn -out old political elite. This message can be resonated, since Miley continues to produce financial results. If it maintains the key pillars of its economic plan, fiscal austerity, monetary discipline and liberal deregulation, it still has a chance of success, even in the midst of international turmoil and a demanding electoral climate.

But Miley is deliberate if he thinks he has already won the battle. Many leaders were temporarily managed to tackle the Argentine economy. However, no one succeeded in finding the Holy Grail: the constant macroeconomic stability that leads to long -term prosperity.

“Things have become more complicated with Trump’s duties,” said economist Markos Boukalia, co -founder of the Alberdi Partners, based in Buenos Aires. “Now it needs to be done, even if this means a weaker foreign exchange system – which will affect economic activity.”

That is why Miley has to spend less time inflating his ego or chasing chimeras, such as a free trade agreement with the US, and more to the basics: the rescue of the economy and winning a harsh electoral showdown. The future of his government will be judged in Buenos Aires, not Mar-A-Lago.