Popular support for Ekrem Imamoglou, the Mayor of Constantinople whose arrest has sparked the largest demonstrations that have taken place in Turkey for a decade, has increased further – above that of President Tayyip Erdogan – after being arrested.

Two investigations, released in recent days, show that Imoglou’s imprisonment on March 19 has also reinforced the view that he is Erdogan’s main opponent in any future presidential election, even if he is behind the prison irons.

Would come out today president

Investigations conducted in April by Metropoll and Konda companies show that Imamoglu would comfortably precede Erdogan in a hypothetical electoral duel – although elections will not be held before 2028.

“If the elections were held today, and Imamoglu and Erdogan were in the second round of vote, Imamoglu would win by a difference of seven percentage points,” says Ozer Senchar, leader of Metropoll research, which estimates his support of 46%.

Konda’s poll showed that support for Imamoglou increased in April well above 40%, more than last month, and would be preceded by Erdogan in a hypothetical electoral duel, according to Aidin Erdem, General.

Erdogan came first when he was asked by respondents to choose from a wider list of nine potential candidates, Konda said.

Increased polarization

Investigations also show that, after the arrest of the mayor nearly two months ago, Turkish voters have pointed out even more between the AKP, Erdogan’s party, and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) of Imoglou, which is the largest opposition.

Metropoll found that, after March, support for both the CHP and the AKP increased by about five percentage points, to 34% and 33% respectively, largely because they chose camp voters who were indecisive until then.

However, the number of undecided voters declined significantly in April compared to March, with most supporting one of the two men, indicating that the mayor’s imprisonment has reinforced a “growing polarization” in political affairs, Erdem said.

The results of Konda and Metropoll’s surveys have not been widely published in Turkey, except for the media ordered the investigations.

Some previous polls had shown that support for Imamoglou was moving to similar high levels, including before his decisive last year’s victory in the municipal elections.

The head of another polls, Mehmet Ali Kulat of Mak, said that the future success of Imamoglou and CHP would largely depend on whether other opposition parties, especially the pro -Kurdish DEM that had previously supported the CHP.

Erdogan, who was last elected in 2023, cannot be a candidate under the law, unless early elections are announced and supported by three -fifths of Parliament, which means that he will need support beyond his ruling Conservative Coalition.