Lastly, the political whistleblower that France has come from last summer, when Emmanuel Macron announced early parliamentary elections, as the relative tranquility achieved in December with the country’s prime minister’s assignment to François Bairou.

Bairou is confronted with a series of intractable political problems that could well threaten the viability of his minority government, as Politico reports.

Currently, the Socialists maintain control of fragmented French National Assembly. However, the party is facing internal turmoil in view of its conference in June, which is considered critical to the future of the movement that once dominated the political left of France.

The first secretary of the Socialist Olivier Fort is challenged by a “alliance” of more moderate, social democratic, pro -European forces within his party. And in response, he and his “allies” are not excluded that they will seek to trigger a crisis to mobilize the left -wing base of the party, resolving their support for Bairou, which was catalytic in order to vote in February in February 205.

At the same time, the center -right Republicans, who are a critical component of the minority government of Bairo, are also in turmoil. The party is going to elect a new leader this month, and its current president, Laurent Ukaye, is facing the possibility of a humiliating defeat by a senior member of the Bairo government – the hard -core and popular Interior Minister Bruno Retagio.

This internal confrontation for the party’s leadership threatens to become a battle between members supporting the “alliance” with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrifugal and those – such as Ukiye – who reject it.

Like the Socialists, Republicans do not seem to be able to return to their old glory, while the powerful macronistic, or post-Makronistic, center manages to survive. And if Ukiye loses, he can try to dismantle this alliance.

Another challenge for Bairou is the National Coalition, Marin Lepen’s far -right party, who thinks whether and how it will cause problems for the government in retaliation for his five -year exclusion of his leader from public posts after being convicted of embezzling the previous month.

As if all of this was not enough, Bairou is facing personal problems. The French prime minister is perhaps at the most critical turning point of his political career due to a child abuse scandal in a Catholic school near his constituency of PO, in Pyrenees, 30 years ago, when he was a Minister of Education.

In February, Bairou told the National Assembly that he was not aware of the scandal area at that time. However, his allegations have been denied in recent days, among other things, by his own daughter.

The French prime minister is set to file a committee of parliament to investigate the case later today. A non -persuasive deposition with the Commission will certainly increase the calls of both the media and the opposition to remove it from the prime minister.

The scandal seems unlikely to lead to the fall of Bairo on its own. However, he may encourage his enemies – and his supposed friends – within the National Assembly to eventually pull the “outlet” that keeps the minority government in life.

But the biggest challenge faced by the Bairo government – and the most likely reason that it will not survive by the end of the year – remains the fiscal crisis facing France.

It has been only two months since the budget has passed, and the government has already been forced to take extraordinary measures, such as cuts of 3.1 billion euros in spending on agriculture and energy to cover a 5 billion -euro hole. Financial problems are threatening to broaden this year’s 5.4% of GDP to 5.8%.

In addition, in order for France to achieve the goal of a deficit of 4.6% of GDP next year, Bairou will have to “save” an additional 40 billion euros in the 2026 budget.

Although the government argues that most of this amount will come from spending cuts, members of the Council of Ministers have not ruled out the possibility of suspension of pension protection and other social benefits from inflation, while the table seems to be partially, at least 10% of their 10% abolition.

The reactionary socialists have implied that the adoption of these measures could push to support a motion of censure against the government investigating the left and the far -right.

They have also threatened to throw Bayrou if the concession made in February – for the resumption of discussions between trade unions and employers on Macron’s pension reform in 2023 – does not lead to a draft law that will reduce the age of 62 to 62.

In the meantime, Lepen’s national consolidation could focus on the same issues if it decides to take revenge on its criminal conviction of the party leader, thus plunging the country into a new political vortex.

A total of 289 votes of 577 MPs are required to pass on the motion of censure against Bairos. Currently, the French prime minister is based on the support of about 210 MPs – but if Ukiye divides the Republicans, this number could easily be reduced.

All of these problems are undoubtedly creating a headache in the Bairo government. Because although French voters have no appetite to add an internal crisis to the international crises caused by the US government, the risk of collapse for the Bayrou government remains visible.