On Monday, Donald Trump failed once again to persuade Vladimir Putin to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine as a first step towards a peace deal. But how could an agreement look like And what would it mean for the Ukrainian people? The Guardian wonders.

One of the few clear peace proposals is an American plan allegedly saw Reuters last month. In this you ask Ukraine to accept de Jure recognition of Crimea’s annexation by Russia and de facto recognition of the possession of large sections of several areas to the east of the country. On Monday, Volodimir Zelenski confirmed that Russia demands that the Ukrainian troops abandon five areas not as a prerequisite for peace, but for a ceasefire and starting negotiations.

Prior to the war, these areas hosted about 11 million Ukrainians. To put it in a context, the Guardian depicted some comparable residential areas in three European countries and one US state. Shaded areas represent populations About 11 million French, British, Italian and American citizens.

For many Ukrainians, the proposal means that they will never be able to return to their homes in areas now occupied by Russians and that they will accept that Ukrainians who remain there, friends and relatives, will be permanently subject to a violent and oppressive Russian regime.

Lutshevic, a researcher at Chatham House, said: “There is a strong nationwide feeling that Russia will want to understand more than Ukraine territory, so any concessions only feed the monster. Ukrainians know that life under occupation is horrible. Ukrainians will never agree to legally recognize their occupied land as anything other than illegal violent annexation. “

The displaced

It is not clear how many people remain in the areas now possessed by the Russians. In some cases, entire cities have become ruins during the war, and many Ukrainians have fled for security either in Ukrainian territories or other countries.

The UN says there are 3 million Ukrainians displaced from the conflict within the country and another 6 million abroad.

Vladimir Putin says he wants elections in Ukraine (he wants to defeat Volodimir Zelenski). Where will these 9 million people vote? As Donetsk residents, where some of them haven’t gone since 2014? As residents of Harcovo? The Guardian wonders.

Lutsevic said: “The elections will need careful preparation due to the many displaced inside and outside Ukraine. Ukraine must protect its reputation as a democracy. If the elections take place very quickly and are not properly prepared, the Ukrainians will question their legality. This is exactly what Putin wants – a failed state with disorder that cannot be ruled. There is no longer a request for early elections and pressure from the US and Russia is like intervention in Ukraine’s domination. “

The price of uncertainty

One of the most alarming aspects of these proposals for Ukraine is that they leave pending that prevent reconstruction. On the Russian side, a Putin who is neither loser nor punished is expected to try again, or at least try to interfere with Ukrainian policy, as it did in the years preceding 2014. Even on the Ukrainian side, an agreement that is considered illegal can bring about instability and desire.

In the meantime, security guarantees from Europe or the US must be supported by actual power to be reliable and must be a believer long -term commitment to make the difference.

Moutztaba Rahman, head of Europe of the Eurasia Group Counseling Company, said: “The key question for Ukraine is: reliable security guarantee that will allow the return of private funds to the country? The only security guarantee that Putin has not questioned is Article 5 of [ΝΑΤΟ] And that is why the Ukrainians are determined to join NATO. Without such a guarantee, they do not return private funds and there can be no reconstruction. “

Internal stability is also important. Lusevic said: “Russian territorial possessions are undermining and blocking the reforms and consolidation of democracy, which is key to integrating both the EU and NATO. The risk of instability scares immediate foreign investment.

“Ukrainians see the EU first of all as an educational project of modernization and a way of eliminating corruption. NATO is more related to collective security, but has a strong economic impact. To rebuild Ukraine, it is key for Kiev to succeed in the EU integration process. The fact that the EU has launched accession talks with Ukraine is considered one of the victories of the Ukrainian people. “