The unexpected truce In a escalating tariff war between USA and China greeting by Chinese commentators as a success for the country. However, Beijing does not have hallucinations and is preparing for a difficult run in its relationships with the US and for the following negotiations.

Already in the days shortly after the May 12 agreement between American and Chinese negotiators in Geneva, Beijing attacked Washington. The attacks continued. On Monday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce accused the US of “undermining” Geneva’s talks, as the Trump government warned companies not to use artificial intelligence chips manufactured by Huawei National Technology Championship. Two days later, he said Washington “abuses export controls to suppress and restrict China”, referring again to Trump’s instructions on artificial intelligence chips.

Beijing also persists in its position on Fentanyl, calling the scourge of drugs a “US problem, not China”.

This hard attitude of China sends a clear message In view of the expected negotiations: that even when Beijing is facing a serious financial problem from commercial friction, has no mood for quick concessions at the expense of his own image or interests.

It is also a reminder that despite the temporary suspension, an established US-China strategic strategic rivalry will throw a heavy shadow in these conversations.

Time counts in the trade negotiations, as the truce agreed by US and Chinese officials earlier this month lasts only 90 days. According to this agreement, the two sides agreed to reduce duties by 115 percentage points. No further commercial talks between the US and China have been announced, although US trade spokesman Jameson Green and China’s trade envoy Lee Chengngang met on the sidelines of a meeting of APEC’s trade ministers in South Korea last week.

‘No illusion’

When Trump announced the so -called mutual duties to commercial partners around the world last month, China followed a different approach from most countries, quickly imposing its own measures.

And he did not even retreat when the US president suspended most of the duties in other countries while increasing them in China. Now, Chinese leaders probably feel ‘reassured that their US strategy is on the right track’according to Geopolitical General Brian Wong, Assistant Professor at Hong Kong University.

But the question for Beijing is How to turn this into a constant victory for the economy of. If current duties remain in force, the US-China trade could be half-reduced, thereby reducing China’s growth by 1.6% and leading to losses of four to six million jobs, according to head of Asia-Pacific Economist

The Trump government has not yet made a clear set of demands on negotiations with China, but the president has long criticized the US trade deficit with China, about $ 300 billion, and accuses the country of relocating US jobs and US jobs.

Facing the storm

But despite his strict rhetoric, analysts estimate that Beijing is likely to make some concessions. This could include taking back or expanding a trade agreement to buy more US products achieved during the first Trump trade war, which was never fully implemented. The cooperation of the law enforcement authorities or the stricter controls on the production of precursors of chemicals used for the manufacture of fentanyl could be yet another cooperation.

“The Chinese are willing to make agreements to withstand the storm called Trump,” said Yun Sun, director of the program for China at Think Tank Stimson Center in Washington. “If there is a way to minimize costs and stabilize bilateral relationships … This is the most preferred. But they want the US to be practical and reasonable. “

There are clear friction points. Beijing would probably like to work to close the commercial gap by buying high -tech American technology, much of which is now prohibited to sell it there. Chinese officials may also be cautious about negotiating too much with the Trump team and making concessions related to the opening of their financial system. Whatever the caseBeijing has its own influence, As it seems to continue to maintain strict control over rare land exports, which are critical to the automotive, aerospace and military industries.

But analysts also consider China more capable of withstanding economic pain from the US since Chinese leader Xi Jing is a powerful man at the top of a strictly controlled Communist Party system, who is not vulnerable in the same way as Trump when the economy begins.

“Although the impact of duties on China’s economy will become more intense, Beijing believes it can withstand the trade war more than the United States,” wrote former Chinese diplomat Zhou Xiaoming in his online analysis earlier this month.

Si and his officials have started a series of diplomatic actions Targeting partners from Latin America to Europe and Southeast Asiapromoting China as a responsible partner – and offering the enhancement of cooperation or expanding free trade.

But no matter what happens in the next 90 days, the wider US-China rivalry means that both EThey are less dependent on each other.