Last March 6, a delegation from the government of Joe Biden traveled to Caracas to meet with Nicolás Maduro. The visit was another one that Western diplomats are carrying out to different oil powers in order to increase the injection of hydrocarbons into the global energy market to compensate for the shortage caused by sanctions against Russia. These movements implied a rapprochement with undemocratic regimes known for their precarious human rights record, such as Turkmenistan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela itself.
This “exploratory” meeting highlights Biden’s willingness to put aside the “energy transition” in the face of a possible oil shortage, just a few months away from the November 2022 legislative elections. But, on the other hand, the direct dialogue of diplomatic representatives with the Maduro regime also reveals a change in foreign policy towards Venezuela, despite the fact that White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki insisted on not recognizing Nicolás Maduro as Venezuela’s leader.
It is worth noting that the Venezuelan regime, with strong diplomatic and military ties to Russia, does not have the capacity to make commitments to either party. Its power is based on a form of extractive feudalism, controlled by different factions protected by the State, so the government does not have the real technical capacity to sustainably increase an eventual increase in oil production.
Today’s PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela), lacking the high-quality human capital it had until a few years ago and with seriously deteriorated facilities, could hardly be the strategic anchor of the new US energy geopolitics. At least in the short or medium term.
Venezuela currently produces around 740,000 barrels of oil a day, which is less than a tenth of current Russian production. An eventual reactivation of the industry will have a very limited effect on the current global energy crisis. But in addition to these disadvantages, Venezuela has the largest proven reserves in the world. And while Venezuela’s heavy and extra-heavy oil requires a higher level of investment for extraction, refining and transport, it yields better benefits in high price contexts, as appears to be the trend.
In this sense, Venezuelan oil has once again become an attraction, as announced by large companies such as Chevron. And a resumption of oil exploration could, in any case, partially or fully compensate the US for the volume of oil currently coming from Russia, about 550,000 barrels of oil daily, on average, by the year 2021.
Bad news for the Venezuelan democratic cause?
An eventual and still unlikely approach between the White House and Miraflores to supply the US with oil could give air to the Maduro regime and become a new obstacle to the democratic cause that many Venezuelans have been building for years, inside and outside the country.
This was recognized by Juan González himself, US presidential adviser for Latin America and member of the diplomatic entourage that traveled to Caracas. However, in the midst of a global crisis in which the US energy security itself is threatened, these aspects play a secondary role for the Biden administration.
Regardless of the two-way diplomacy that continues to be practiced by the Maduro regime, the democratic cause must take note of what happened and focus on its continuity. It must be assumed that an eventual return to democracy will not depend exclusively on the diplomatic direction taken by the central actors of the world order.
In any case, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on the world energy market opened up a new political scheme that the Venezuelan dictatorship will try to take advantage of to position itself after years of sanctions and international isolation. Something that has been exacerbated recently, as much of the money from Venezuelan oil sales remains in US-sanctioned Russian banks. This could accelerate a new phase in the process of negotiations with the opposition, suspended a few months ago unilaterally by the government. Many things still remain to be defined in a changing and uncertain international context.
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