OR escalation of war in Middle East It raises concerns about serious consequences for the global economy, with energy prices being intense pressure into an atmosphere of increased uncertainty. Israel’s recent attack on Iranian nuclear and missile installations had an immediate financial impact: the international oil price has increased sharply, while investors chose “safe shelters”, such as gold, to secure their funds.

Futures in crude oil rose up to 13%, as money markets estimate further tensions. Brent climbed 10%, reaching $ 75.15 a barrel – record price for the last five months.

Negative prospects for purchases

At internationally, markets in Asia, Europe and the US have responded negatively to these developments, with Germany’s DAX index recording remarkable losses. In Europe, travel and entertainment sectors were particularly hit, while energy and defense sectors showed rapid recovery trends.

In Israel, the proclamation “Emergency Special Status” It led the national currency, the Sekel, to retreat, while the supermarkets formed queues and the shelves were emptied, with consumer markets in some chains increasing.

Risk for global energy security

The greatest risk is found in the perspective of a prolonged war between Israel and Iran, which would further press on energy markets and supply chains. The Middle East is one of the most critical suppliers oil worldwide. Especially the straits of the hormoz play a key role: about 20% of the world’s oil needs (18-19 million barrels per day, according to EIA).

If the trafficking is interrupted due to the collision, a new ejector is expected to have oil prices, which will affect fuel to food, intensifying pressure on households and businesses.

Medium Term Impact: Shipping, Tourism, World Recession

The crisis of the Middle East erupts at a time when the global economy is already under pressure from US duty policy. In addition to oil, a long military confrontation will negatively affect shipping and tourism, especially in view of the presence of armed organizations such as Houthi and Hezbollah.

As analysts point out, escalating destabilization In the area it will lead to further increases in transport costs due to “security surcharges” already seeking to impose shipping companies. At the same time, several countries – including Greece and Great Britain – recommend in their commercial fleet to avoid the straits of the hormat, limiting navigation in the region.

With international markets moving in uncharted waters and the possibility of a warfare warrant, the prospects for the global economy are also burdened by US duties and possibly leading to a new wave. world recessionaccording to current estimates.

Curated by: George Passas