Israeli blows are directly aimed at the backbone of the enemy’s military power: the body of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the Wall Street Journal notes.

But attacks also increase the likelihood of a change in leadership that will concentrate power in the hands of the elite military force, with the potential effect of an even more anti-Israeli Iran.

Read here all developments from Israel – Iran war

Recent Israeli blows have killed many senior guard executives, including its senior commander and architect of Iran’s ballistic missiles. The revolution guards responded with daily rocket attacks over Tel Aviv, including in military facilities and a hospital on Thursday, and warned the US not to get involved.

What will happen if the loser is killed or overturned

The war has caused the most serious blow to Iran for four decades and has pushed it at risk of survival. The rule of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei depends largely on the guard’s dedication. If Hameni is overthrown or killed, the revolutionary guard will probably intervene and dictate a new ruler -and in this way, he will take on unprecedented power.

“The balance of forces in Iran after that will shift in the direction of the army in the direction of the guard,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iranian expert and a senior associate of the Foreign Relations Council. “Those who have the upper hand will be men with weapons. And they will try to restore some kind of religious leadership, because, after all, it is an Islamic democracy, “he added.

The guards of the revolution

Since its establishment in 1979, the Corps of the Islamic Revolution, or IRGC, is the strongest branch of Iran’s Armed Forces and is separate – and stronger – by the national army. It has its own land forces, the Navy, the Air Force, the Intelligence Services and the Special Forces, with a total staff of about 125,000 people. It is also deeply integrated into the economic system, political affairs and social fabric of Iran.

The Islamic Republic is not a monarchy, but a coalition of centers of power rallying under the power of the supreme leader. In a fragmented country, the guard of the Revolution has emerged over time as the only stronger factor, partly due to an extensive economic empire.

The US has tried to limit the impact of the guard, describing the terrorist organization in 2019 and targeting it with financial sanctions. In 2020, during the first presidency of Trump, an US military blow killed Kassem Suleimani, the head of the international power of the guard of the guard and its more prominent commander.

An economic empire

The Guard dominates all major infrastructure sectors, including oil and gas, construction and telecommunications. It markets consumer goods and benefits from semi -governmental charities that operate hundreds of subsidiaries from agriculture to tourism.

“Millions of people are dependent on the economic Empire of the Revolution Guard,” said Ali Alfoneh, an IRGC expert at the Arab Institute of Arab Gulf in Washington and author of a book on the Guard.

In a sense, he said, the guard of the Iranian revolution is similar to the army in Egypt, which has been dominated by the state since 1952, or in Pakistan, where the Armed Forces have been controlling control since 1947, including through three major coups.

While the guard’s external operations have been seriously hindered by Israel’s military campaign, its dominance inside has not been hindered. If the supreme leader is overthrown and foreign enemies try to capture public turmoil by bombarding the country, imposing a ban on flight and exerting financial pressure -as they did against Saddam Hussein in the 1990s -the 1990s.

“IRGC as an organization is capable of waging a civil war and prevail in a civil war, against an opposition [ενδεχομένως] funded and armed by Israel and the US, “he said.

Although personalities are important to the revolutionary guard – its commanders advise the supreme leader – its leadership is mainly collective and to some extent informal, consisting of active and retired officers from different factions. Despite the recent deaths of senior commanders, the IRGC remained consistent enough to launch a daily fire against Israel.

It was formed after the revolution that overturned the US -backed Shah, the original purpose of the revolutionary guard was to protect the hatchery state from domestic and foreign threats, military as well as ideological. Many of its current commanders are veterans of Iran’s eight -year war with Iraq in the 1980s, one of the most deadly world conflicts of the last century.

The war, in which the regime of Saddam Hussein, with the US support, killed hundreds of thousands of Iranians, including chemical weapons, continues to shape the guard’s views on its neighbors and the West and is a cornerstone of its religious-nationalist.

The basij

To build submission, the IRGC has created local community networks, mainly through the Basijs, a paramilitary group that is best known in the West for violent demonstration of demonstrations, but also involved in political and social activities.

Basijs are involved with Iranians across the country, from kindergarten to adulthood. It offers religious and ideological teachings and extracurricular activities. It gives sports events such as weight lifting, struggle and taekwondo. Members can buy a deduction groceries.

“The main reason why the Basij have managed to attract people in the past is that it gives poor children something to do,” said Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and author of an IRGC book. “At its lower levels are the scouts. It’s a patriotic movement, “he said. “But as soon as you get to the high school levels, they start getting from basij people who can be useful in safety work.”

If IRGC is forced to consolidate a new governance, the Basijs will be vital to maintaining internal security, Ostovar said.

A change of regime that will completely displace the guards of the revolution will not only bring about political change, but also dismantle social fabric into parts of Iranian society. However, as is often the case with regime changes, many financial structures and businesses will probably survive, including those of IRGC, said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and chief executive of the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation, a financial tank.

“Individuals and networks that make up IRGC are integrated into state institutions and economic entities, commercial entities, to the extent that I think there will be a continuation, even if there is a great deal of political transition,” Bathaghelidj said. “And this is something I rarely see people deal with,” he said.

Regardless of the outcome of today’s war with Israel, the Islamic Republic is facing a historic showdown. Many Iranians will accuse the leadership, and especially the guards of the revolution, of dragging the country into a devastating war. Its economic sovereignty is also a source of rage among the Iranians who are bored of financial difficulties, while some members of the guard have benefited.