The US air raid on Iranian nuclear facilities triggers a dangerous escalation in the Middle East, with Iran warning of retaliation and world markets fearing a new energy crisis. Donald Trump called on Tehran to choose the way of peace, otherwise he would face, as he said, “greater and easier” attacks. Analysts estimate that the Tehran may respond by targeting US bases and warshipslaunching cyberattacks or attempting to exclude the straits of the hormone, according to an analysis of the Financial Times.

The top leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khameneihad warned Washington of “irreparable damage” if the US reinforced Israel in the war against the Islamic Republic. On Saturday, Donald Trump ordered the operation to go against Iran.

The US president sent bombers to hit critical Iranian nuclear facilities. These locations “They were exterminated,” Trump said.

Retired General Joseph Votel, former US Central Administration Commander (CentCom), who oversees US forces in the Middle East, said he said he The Pentagon must consider Iranian reaction confident.

Analysts said this reaction may include immediate attacks on US forces or diplomatic missions in the region, cyberattacks, terrorism or new blows by Iranian paramilitary organizations. Tehran could also disrupt energy exports from the Persian Gulf.

With tens of thousands of US troops developed in the Middle East and with Iran and its allies being “absolutely clear” about their intention to attack, people will soon find out if Trump was “prepared for the consequences,” said Danas Stroulis.

Possible goals of Iran

The large US military bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are “very likely” to be Iran’s goals, Botel said, adding that Centcom has already taken preparation measures.

A few days before the US military action on Saturday night, Eliot Abramks, a former expert envoy to Iran and Venezuela in the first Trump government, had warned that targets could also be US allies in the Gulf, such as the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.

Iran could also try to close the Hormonethe narrow maritime passage through which one -third of the world maritime trade passes every day, according to Abrams. This would “cause an immediate increase in world oil prices”.

While the US has sent aid to the Middle East in recent days, Iran is now “ready” to counterattack, with “a range of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones,” said former Air Force Minister Frank Kendal before the US.

The decision to make such a reaction is for Iran a “issue of escalation”, that is, it should calculate what additional attacks it can accept if it responds to the US.

Trump warned Iran not to follow this path, with a statement on Saturday night, saying that Tehran must now choose the way of peace, otherwise he would face, as he said, “greater and easier” attacks.

According to a Pentagon official, about 40,000 US troops and US staff are developed in the Middle East, in bases and military locations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Jordan.

The bases in UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait have anti -aircraft defense, but are within range of Iran’s short -range missiles, Kendal noted. There are also many destroyers and an aircraft carrier, with the USS Nimitz battle team on the way.

“It is always a reasonable degree of alert due to possible attacks, but now I suppose the readiness will be even higher,” he said.

The 2,500 US troops in Iraq and hundreds in Syria are potentially exposed to attacks by Shiite militias supported by Iran – who have previously attacked rockets and drones – but also in Iranian missiles.

“The militias in Iraq have not been dissolved. They made a political decision to protect themselves and not attack US forces so far, “Dana Strulle said.

Houthi in Yemen, also backed by Iran, will consider US attacks as a violation of the truce that had agreed with Washington in the spring, Strulle said, and may target US ships.

In addition to the remaining missiles in Iran, analysts note that it has other means of attack.

“Iran still has very sophisticated aggressive opportunities in cyberspace, while its network maintains groups of sabotage in a hypotension, far beyond the Middle East,” Strulle said.

An additional danger is that Saturday’s US raid on Fordo – one of the two main uranium enrichment facilities of Iran – may not have the effectiveness of the US. Although Iran has confirmed the attacks, there is no evidence of the size of the underground complex.

These attacks may enhance Iran’s determination to develop a nuclear weapons program. The Islamic Republic has already enriched celestial levels close to weapons, although it insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful use.

“Although it is certain that the Israelis has caused significant damage to the Iranian military-industrial complex, in missile ballistic systems, in its nuclear program and its leadership … You cannot bombard knowledge-and these programs can be rebuilt.”

“Any additional damage may be delayed for years, but will not prevent them from re -establishing or continuing a program for acquiring nuclear weapons,” Frank Kendall said.

Iran could also respond with financial blows, targeting energy exports from the Persian Gulf.

In 2019, the vulnerabilities of the area were revealed when an attack with rockets and drones – attributed to Iran – caused a temporary interruption of 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil production. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have sought in recent years a recession in relations with Iran to reduce tension and prevent new attacks.

In the straits of Ormuz, Iran could use high -speed offensive boats, submarines and coastal anti -infant weapons to hit passing ships, Kendal said. Alternatively, it could mine the maritime passage – though Iran itself exports oil through the narrows, which is a key source of currency.

Michael Alfaro, Head of Gall Partners investment, a centered Hedge fund, warned that global energy markets are preparing for prolonged volatility following US attacks.

“The wider geopolitical consequences will almost certainly maintain the upward pressure on oil prices,” Alfaro said. “Iran is likely to maintain a significant influence on the straits of Hormuz.”