Of Dennis Ross*

Twenty -five years ago this week, I was in Camp David as head of the Clinton government negotiator for the Middle East. We attempted to resolve the conflict of Israeli and Palestinians and achieve peace between two national movements competing for the same space.

In July 2000, we were optimistic about the end of the conflict. In the past seven years, from the start of the Oslo process, which included mutual recognition between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (PA) for negotiations, four agreements had been concluded: Wai River.

But in two weeks in Camp David, even when his negotiators showed some flexibility, Yasser Arafat, president of the PA, rejected every proposal. At one point, he told Clinton that if he accepted what the US was asking for, “we would walk to his funeral.”

Arafat allowed his representatives to continue the negotiations, and in December we met privately. He said that he could accept the ideas I presented to him to bridge the gaps on Jerusalem, refugees, border and security. We brought the Israeli and Palestinian negotiating groups in Washington, but when they failed to reach an agreement, both sides asked us to present an intermediate proposal – the so -called “Clinton parameters”. The Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak accepted them. Arafat no. On the contrary, the violence rekindled and the second Intifada broke out, a five -year uprising with thousands of dead on both sides.

Since then, there has been no political progress between Israel and Palestinians, although Israel has unilaterally retired from Gaza in 2005.

Abraham’s agreements in 2020, during President Trump’s first term, expanded peace between Israel and the Arab world: United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco normalized their relations with Israel. President Biden attempted to deepen the cooperation that these agreements promised. By 2023, the government was on the brink of agreement with Saudi Arabia: the Saudis would acquire a defensive treaty with the US and US support for nuclear industry, in return for peace and normalizing Israeli relations.

Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, was partly aimed at blocking this agreement. Later, Saudi officials told me that if Israel had managed to beat Hamas faster, without destroying much of Gaza and killing so many people, normalization would have already happened.

But death and destruction in Gaza have turned against Israel against public opinion in the Arab countries, and their leaders know it. At the same time, however, they are not unhappy that Israel dramatically weakened Iran and its regional powers.

The weakening of Iran and the focus of the regime on internal survival create opportunities for peace and regional integration. Even with the uncertainty in Lebanon, and especially in Syria, it may be possible for partial normalization agreements, if not complete with Israel.

Trump seeks – and rightly – to make use of the new balance of forces in the region in order to achieve normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel and to expand Abraham’s agreements. In the art of diplomacy, time plays a role similar to that of the location in the real estate market: in other words, the point is to score the moment.

But, given the mood on the part of the Arabia, nothing can happen before the war in Gaza ends and the Israeli army retires. Israel has already defeated Hamas militarily, but seeks to prevent its re -emergence. That is why an alternative is needed. Neither the Trump government nor Netanyahu have presented a credible plan for the “next day” so as not to create a void of power.

But the Arabs have not presented a credible plan for the disarmament of Gaza, although without this there can be no serious rebuilding. No one will invest seriously in a gauze where Hamas can rebuild her military power.

Even if the current 60 -day ceasefire talks will be successful, nothing will change unless they lead to the end of the war, the liberation of the Israeli hostages and the withdrawal of the Israeli forces. If Netanyahu wants to make use of the achievements of his army, he should accept a transitional administration under the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco and Saudi Arabia, with the participation of PA.

Arab leaders must take responsibility to reform the Palestinian Authority: President Mahmoud Abbas have a ritual role, appoint a new prime minister with international credibility, and establish transparent financial management processes, supervised by the World Bank. Without these changes, the idea of putting Gaza under the administration of the PA, even after a transitional period of 2-3 years, is illusion.

Without ending the division and incitement of violence, the “Palestinian state” remains a slogan. Arab leaders must carry reforms and a realistic plan showing that the Palestinian state will not fail.

As long as the Israelis believe that such a state is controlled by Hamas or extremists, they will not accept it. However, the Israeli government also cannot act in ways that make it impossible to create a Palestinian state, which is already the case on the West Bank. Trump must put pressure on Netanyahu to stop the expansion of colonies, the pressures on the Palestinians and the voices in favor of attachment to Likud.

History offers opportunities, but they rarely last. With Iran and his forces in retreat, this is the time for a new coalition in favor of peace and progress.

The opportunity is real, but it will not be done in itself. 25 years ago we failed because we did not push Arab leaders to take responsibility or support Arafat. Today, Trump may not miss the opportunity, only if he demands both the Arabs and Israel take responsibility and resist their own disagreement.

*Dennis Ross is a consultant at the Washington Institute for politics in the Middle East and has served in national security positions under the presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George H. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.