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A day after Russia’s promise to “drastically” reduce military activity in Kiev and Chernihiv, attacks continued on Ukrainian territory on Wednesday (30), including on the outskirts of these cities.
The incidents heighten skepticism in Ukraine and the West that the end of the conflict is approaching. Volodymyr Zelensky’s government is asking for a halt to the attacks in exchange for accepting points demanded by Russia — as we explain here, Kiev has signaled its willingness, at different levels, to not be part of NATO and to discuss the situation in separatist areas.
“We must not be misled by Russia’s announcements,” the White House declared on Tuesday, in a harsh tone that has been dominant among US officials since the conflict began.
In addition to rhetorical tactics, the actions of the US and the Joe Biden administration in relation to the war have been guided by:
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military aid: this year alone, Biden announced the sending of US$ 1 billion (about R$ 5 billion) in resources and weapons to Ukraine;
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economic sanctions: Since 22.Feb, the US has applied 690 restrictions on and against Russia, including vetoing oil and gas imports, closing airspace for Russian aircraft and blocking companies.
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Humanitarian help: after pressure to facilitate the entry of Ukrainians into the country, the government has committed to welcoming up to 100,000 refugees, in addition to offering financial assistance to European countries.
The shipment of weapons from the West is considered a preponderant role for the Ukrainian resistance and leads Moscow to limit the objectives of its military action.
But this reinforcement in defense also has an important economic relevance: the heating of the world arms market, which can favor the US:
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The US is the biggest arms seller in the world, with 39% of the market from 2017 to 2021. Russia is in second place, with 19%;
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Biden asked Congress for 2023 for the biggest peacetime military budget in its history: $813 billion, 4.5% more than forecast this year.
“A good part, if not most, of what the US allocates to Ukraine has been in the form of military aid. And there are very influential interest groups linked to this sector that are very satisfied with the situation”, he says. Laerte Apolinário Junior, professor of international relations at PUC-SP. He analyzes the US role in the conflict:
Could the US and NATO do more, as Zelensky has been demanding? Zelensky’s rhetoric is dangerous because it implies that the US could intervene militarily in the conflict — and any intervention by a NATO member would lead to a direct confrontation with Russia. The consequences would be unpredictable.
Economic sanctions are a compromise between diplomatic action and military action. They are a useful instrument when military action is very costly and out of the question, as is the case.
That’s why we’ve seen the announcement of new US sanctions against Russia with some frequency. Slicing sanctions is part of the strategy. If the measures were announced all at once, there would be no way to escalate, and the next step would be military action.
What is the weight of economic measures in relation to those already applied by the US against other countries? Russia has become the country with the most sanctions applied in history, surpassing countries such as Cuba, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. Although this number is quite expressive quantitatively, the vast majority of these sanctions have been applied against individuals and avoid more expressive sectors of the Russian economy, such as energy.
The severity of sanctions varies according to the interests of the country applying them. In the case of the US, they are not dependent on imports of energy resources from Russia. They are not interdependent economies, so the US can go further in its sanctions as it is less vulnerable than European countries in relation to Russia.
like mr. evaluate the US performance in the conflict? Biden has sought to escalate the rhetoric regarding conflict over domestic issues. He faces low popularity, and the US will go through legislative elections this year. So he needs to convey a strong image of the leader of the western world against Russia.
Regarding military aid, the country has very relevant interests in Ukraine — both in economic terms (due to Ukraine’s importance to the European market, as a transit route for Russian gas and exporter of commodities) and because of its importance as a market for supply. of armaments.
Do not get lost
To show the discursive escalation of President Joe Biden against Russia —especially against Vladimir Putin—, we recall some of his statements since the beginning of the invasion. In response, the Kremlin has already called the speech “alarming” and “unacceptable rhetoric”.
- “Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war and now he and his country will bear the consequences” – on 24.Feb, announcing sanctions on the day Russia invaded Ukraine
- “He is one war criminal“ – on 16.mar, in a statement to journalists
- “[Putin] it is a murderous dictatora pure bandit who is waging an immoral war against the people of Ukraine” – on 17.mar, when commenting on the position of the United Kingdom and Ireland against the conflict, in an event for St. Patrick’s Day
- “For God’s sake, this man can’t stay in power” – on 26.mar, during visit to Poland. When reprimanded by the Kremlin, he said his statements were “personal” and not political. “I will not apologize,” said the US president.
What happened this Thursday (30)
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Russia received list of demands from Ukraine, but says no progress;
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Bachelet of the UN said attacks on civilians and hospitals could amount to Russia’s war crimes;
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Ukraine says it found unexploded rocket at Chernihiv children’s school;
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After the meeting, Russia and China spoke of a “new era” of diplomatic relations.
picture of the day
What to see and hear to stay informed
Actor Alexandre Borges read a Ukrainian play for TV Folha depicting the civil war at the beginning of the 20th century. And see the account by the governor of Chernihiv, Viatcheslav Tchaus, about the Russian attack.
