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The war in Ukraine, which has already displaced 4 million refugees, has been responsible for another serious humanitarian problem: the increase in hunger.
Not having to eat is a reality for the population of areas surrounded and attacked by Russia, in the invasion that began 36 days ago. Moscow has been accused of cutting off water and energy supplies — which it needs for winter heating — and of hampering the entry of food and humanitarian aid.
Such as sheet showed, residents of besieged cities like Mariupol in the east shared a thin soup and had to melt snow for something to drink. People are scrambling for food and fuel, and shops and pharmacies are being looted, the Red Cross reported.
Agricultural production, an important economic activity in the country, has not escaped attacks. Russian troops seized and destroyed machinery, fertilizer, seeds and fuel stockpiles. Ukraine is expected to sow less than half of what it forecast for this season.
Some estimates show the impact of the war on national food security:
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45% of Ukraine’s population is worried about having enough to eat, warns the World Food Program, a UN relief body;
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food shortages are felt or expected for the next three months in more than 40% of the areas surveyed by FAO, the UN agency for food and agriculture.
Memory: the crisis awakens the trauma of another great Ukrainian tragedy, the Holodomor, the “great famine”, which killed at least 3 million people in 1932 and 1933. To this day it is not clear if the episode was a consequence of the economic crisis or if it was a deliberate policy by the Josef Stalin regime to force farmers to surrender their land for collectivization.
But the supply crisis in the country considered one of the world’s “granaries” also has consequences for global food security.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could increase the number of undernourished people in the world by up to 13.1 million. The most affected regions would be Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, according to FAO.
The impact is related to the destabilization in the international supply of cereals, vegetable oils and fuels, which raises the price of food, as explained here.
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Ukraine and Russia account for a third of world wheat exports;
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In countries like Eritrea, Turkey, Somalia and Tanzania, the dependence on wheat imports of the two nations involved in the war exceeds 60%.
“This granary is being bombed”, summarized the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, on the 14th.
Do not get lost
And what are the other possible impacts of the war on world order issues? We present three:
- Poverty: Increase in food and energy prices caused by war and sanctions on Russia should delay the economic recovery of countries in the post-pandemic. In Latin America alone, 13 million people who would leave poverty are likely to continue in it due to the impacts of the conflict, estimates the World Bank
- energy transition: Europe has announced plans to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. There is pressure for this alternative to be “clean”, with renewable energy sources, which can accelerate the goals of reducing the emission of polluting gases. But increasing coal consumption as a short-term option could thwart that plan. Café da Manhã podcast episode deepens the discussion
- economic order: As discussed here, the new union of Western powers against Russia, with the application of sanctions, can seal the Russian alliance with China and strengthen Beijing as an alternative for market and financial transactions. In this long-term scenario, the Chinese Cips and the yuan would compete with the Swift and the dollar.
What happened this Thursday (31)
picture of the day
What to see and hear to understand conflict
See images of the damage in Ukrainian cities and a statement by Putin in these videos from TV Folha.
