US farmers will plant 1.5 million more hectares with soybeans this year. With that, the total area goes to 36.8 million hectares. In Brazil, it is 41 million hectares.
Soybeans gain space in the corn area, which drops to 36.2 million hectares, 1.6 million less than in 2021.
The cotton area is also advancing, according to the North Americans’ planting intentions. Good prices will lead producers to sow 5 million hectares, 500 thousand more than in the previous harvest.
The data on wheat also came as a surprise, and the crop is expected to occupy 19.2 million hectares.
These data are from USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) and, for now, only show a trend in the preferences of farmers in the country. More consistent data will only come after planting is finished, which is about to start.
Big changes on the eve of sowing, however, are not normal, since planting requires a long preparation on the part of the producers.
Faced with these numbers, the market looked ahead and projected supply and demand at the end of the year, when the North American harvest ends and the grains will already be in warehouses.
The result was an abrupt change in prices. Soybeans, with the increase in area forecast by Usda, should be traded at US$ 14.20 (R$ 67.27) per bushel (27.2 kg) in November, a drop of 3.4% in relation to what was the market was trading.
This drop in prices is because, under normal conditions, US production is expected to be 5 million to 7 million up from 121 million this year.
Vlamir Brandalizze, industry analyst, does not rule out a volume close to 130 million tons, provided that this area is confirmed and that everything goes well with the weather.
The December corn contract rose to US$ 6.84 (R$ 32.40) per bushel (25.4 kg), an increase of 4.2% over Wednesday’s prices (30).
This increase comes from a smaller harvest. Brandalizze believes that US producers will harvest 15 million to 20 million tons less corn this year, compared to 2021, when the volume reached 384 million.
This fall in production by the North Americans comes after a break in the Brazilian safrinha in 2021 and uncertainties on the part of Ukrainians regarding this year’s planting. The Brazilian safrinha of 2022 gains strong importance for the market.
The price of cotton, with an estimated increase in area in the United States, dropped 3% in the first two contracts on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
Commodities also reacted in the Brazilian market, as shown by Cepea. Corn on the domestic market interrupted the downward trend and rose to R$ 92.10 per bag. This value, however, is still 4.4% lower than a month ago.
Wheat rose again, but it also ends the month with prices lower than at the end of February. Soybean maintained stable values, while cotton registered a fall.
pre-China The arroba of fat cattle returned to the values of December, a period in which China was out of the Brazilian market. This Thursday (31), the arroba dropped to R$ 323, as monitored by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).
strong fall The price retraction was 7%, an unusual percentage. The arroba returned to values from when China was absent from the Brazilian market
due to the occurrence of two atypical cases of mad cow in the country.
losing strength With this Thursday’s drop, the value of the arroba is only 2.1% above that of a year ago. Chicken and pork had no price changes.
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