Following her defeat by the British in the first opium war, the Qing dynasty signed in 1842 a treaty that condemned China to more than 100 years of foreign oppression and colonial control of its commercial policy.

It was the first of the so -called “unequal conditions”, where the military and technological superpower of the time imposed unilateral terms to reduce its huge commercial deficit, Politico notes.

Do you sound familiar to you? Nearly two centuries later, the EU begins to understand exactly how this is.

The visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Laienne to Donald Trump’s resort in Turnbury, Scotland last month, with the aim of concluding a trade agreement, has caused fears between politicians and analysts that Europe has lost it.

Act

Von der Laienne critics rushed to argue that the acceptance of the 15% of Trump for most European products was equivalent to “submission”, “clear political defeat for the EU” and “ideological and moral capitulation”.

If she hoped that this would keep the US president at a distance, an unpleasant surprise awaited her. With the ink of the trade agreement just dried, Trump doubled the pressure on Monday, threatening to impose new EU duties on digital regulations that would hit America’s technological giants. If the EU does not comply, the US will stop exporting vital microchip technologies, he warned.

His attack came less than a week after Brussels’ belief that they had secured Washington’s written guarantee that their digital rules – and their sovereignty – were safe.

Trump can exercise this advantage of coercion because – like 19th -century British imperialists – he holds the military and technological “papers” and is well aware that his counterpart is far behind in both areas. He knows that Europe does not want to face Russian President Vladimir Putin without the US military support and cannot overcome them without American microchip technology, so he feels he can dictate the commercial agenda.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefsovic implied last month that the US agreement was a reflection of Europe’s strategic weakness and its need to support the US. “It’s not just about trade: it is about security, it concerns Ukraine, it concerns the current geopolitical instability,” he explained.

The trade agreement is “a direct consequence of Europe’s inability to secure its military security and failure to invest, for 20 years, in it,” said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin, who also pointed out the failure to invest in “technological power”.

Warning signs

Just like the Qing leadership, and Europe ignored the warning signs for many years.

“We pay the price for the fact that we ignored the warning signal we received during Trump’s first term and ‘fell asleep’. I hope this is not what we are doing now, “said Sabine Weyand, Director General of Commerce of the European Commission, in a debate at the Alpbach European Forum on Monday. He spoke before Trump’s last attack on technology rules.

It is clear that Trump’s unstable game with duties is far from the end and that the block of 27 countries is sure to face further political insults and unequal results in the negotiations this autumn. In order to prevent humiliation, the EU is facing a difficult task ahead of it: to reduce its dependence on the US in the areas of defense, technology and economics.

The Nanking Treaty, signed under pressure in 1842 at HMS Cornwallis, a British warship anchored on the Yangtz River, forced the Chinese to grant Hong Kong’s territory to British colonists, to pay themselves. The British had the right to trade in five ports, with anyone they wanted.

The opium war marked the principle of what China would call a “century of humiliation”. The British forced the Chinese to open their doors to the catastrophic trade of opium in order to help London regain the huge silver deficit it had with China. It is a time when it still haunts the country and guide the design of its strategic policy both domestically and internationally.

A key factor that forced the ching dynasty to submit was its failure to invest in military and technological progress. It is well known that Emperor Qianlong of China told the British in 1793 that China did not need the “barbaric products” of other countries. Although gunpowder and firearms were Chinese inventions, the lack of experimentation and innovation slowed down their growth, resulting in the Qing dynasty weapons lagging behind about 200 years of British weapons in design, construction and technology.

Similarly, the EU is now punished because it is lagging behind the US decades. The drastic reduction in defense spending after the Cold War kept European countries dependent on the US Army for their safety. Indifference to technological developments means that the EU is now lagging behind its global competitors in almost all critical technologies.

New world order

Trade spokesman Jamieson Greer, for his part, has declared the launch of a new world order – which he called a “Turnberry System” – comparing the trade deal between the US and the EU with the post -war financial system designed at the Bretton Woods resort in 1944.

With his attack on Monday, Trump showed little respect for the EU’s desire to exclude sensitive issues from last week’s non -binding joint statement. The vague wording of the four -page text, meanwhile, leaves him room to exert new pressures or threaten retaliation, if it considers that the EU does not comply with the agreement.

More acts of “humiliation” may follow, as both sides are trying to settle various details – from a system of tariff quotas for steel and aluminum to exceptions for certain areas – that still need to be resolved.

“This deal is so vague that there are many points where conflicts could easily escalate and then be used as an excuse for why other issues will not go ahead,” said Niclas Poitiers, a researcher at Think Tank Bruegel.

Asked what will happen if the EU does not invest the $ 600 billion promised in the US, Trub said earlier this month: “Then they will pay 35%.”

It is a danger, for which the EU is fully aware. The European Commission argues that the amount of $ 600 billion simply reflects the general intentions of the corporate sector, which cannot be imposed by bureaucrats in Brussels.

However, Trump could well use the investment commitment as a reason to impose higher duties.

“We are expecting further upheavals,” said a senior EU official, who asked to maintain his anonymity. However, “we believe we have a very clear policy of insurance”.

In addition, Beijing will be of interest to developments, as EU-China relationships have reached a new low point, and the second dominance of the west need for its ambitions in the field of green energy, digital technology and defense, gives it a huge geopolitical influence.

What can the EU do

But what can the Union do to avoid prolonging its geopolitical weakness?

In preparation for the agreement, von der Laien has repeatedly stressed that the EU’s strategy in its relations with the US must be based on three elements: preparation of retaliation, differentiation of commercial partners and strengthening the Union’s single market.

For some, the EU must see the agreement as an awakening signal to promote deep changes and enhance the competitiveness of the Union through institutional reforms, as described in historical reports written last year by former European Central Bank President Mario Dragi.

In response to the deal, Draghi issued a rigorous warning that Trump’s obvious ability to force the Union to succumb to his desires is an indisputable proof that the Union is facing a risk if it fails to coordinate. He also stressed the weaknesses in the field of security: “Europe is insufficiently equipped in a world where the geo -economy, security and stability of sources, rather than efficiency, inspire international trade relations,” he said.

Eamon Drumm, an research analyst at the German Marshall Fund, also developed this issue. “Europe must consider its business environment as a geopolitical advantage to be strengthened,” he said.

To achieve this, investments in European infrastructure is required, Drumm said: “This means reducing energy prices, better use of European savings for investment in European companies and completing the integration of capital markets.”

In his comments at Politico, French Minister Benjamin Haddad also called for “mass investment in artificial intelligence, quantum information technology and green technologies, as well as the protection of our dominant industries, as Americans do not hesitate to do.”

Free trade

For others, the answer lies in the deepening and differentiation of the Union’s trade ties -Brussels insist that the publication of the trade agreement with the Mercosur block of South America is just around the gates and are considering agreements with Indonesia, India and other countries this year. They have also expressed their willingness to intensify trade with the CptPPPPP block in Asia, which includes Canada, Japan, Mexico, Australia and other countries.

“In addition to modernizing the World Trade Organization, the EU must actually focus on continuing the development of its trade agreements with trusted partners,” said Bernd Lange, a German Social Democrat chaired by the European Commissioner.

“In order to stabilize the rules -based trade system, we need to find a common position with democratically constituted countries,” Lange added.

Europe, according to Drumm, is in front of a choice.

“Will it strengthen its position as a free trade center in a world where globalization is in recession?” questioned. “Either will it become a battlefield where the growing competition between China and the United States will unfold?”