In China, Vladimir Putin will travel this weekend for what the Kremlin has described as a “truly unprecedented” visit to his most important ally, who comes at a time when critical talks with Ukraine.

During the journey, which is expected to take almost a week – abnormally long duration for the Russian leader – He will attend the Sangari Cooperation Summit, will have talks with Xi Jepting and attend the military parade of Niki’s day in Beijing for the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II. Putin is expected to be the central guest with Kim Jong Un of North Korea and the leaders of Iran and Cuba.

According to analysts, one of the main issues of the agenda will be The alignment of Putin’s and Si’s positions in the war in Ukraine, In the midst of US efforts to end battles.

“It is an important time for them to discuss where the war is heading and how likely it is to stop in the near future,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. He also pointed out that Moscow wants to learn If he can expect further help from China And how will Beijing react if the US is asking her to put pressure on Russia to end the battles.

“The two leaders must compare their views and make sure they are on the same page. This is important because the war has become one of the main pillars of their relationship, “he said.

Undoubtedly, the China has emerged on a financial lifeline board for Russia During the War in Ukraine, Kiev has also stated more and more openly for what it calls China’s immediate help in Moscow’s war effort. Bilateral trade increased to more than $ 240 billion last year, that is two -thirds above, before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Beijing is now The top buyer of Russian oil and coal And it will soon surpass Europe as the main market for Moscow’s natural gas.

Thus, Russia’s dependence on China is unlikely to disappear even if hostilities stop, Gabuev said. “Russia wants to know if China will buy more oil and gas in the long run,” he said.

However, although trade has reached record levels in 2024, it has since recorded a decrease in the midst of falling oil exports To China, a trend that Putin is willing to reverse to Beijing. Specifically, the two sides are expected to discuss the natural gas pipeline “Siberian-2 power”which has been proposed for a long time, and the plans to extend the existing oil connection to China.

Conversations are also likely to affect the deepening of military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow; An evolution that has worried the Western governments.

While China does not provide immediate military assistance, US officials say Beijing has supplied about 70% of machine tools and 90% of Russia needed to rebuild its war machine. In return, it is believed that China receives help in sensitive defense technologies.

China claims to be a neutral mediator in the war in Ukraine, but in fact the two countries have come closer than the start of the invasion.

Russia recently suggested Beijing to be between Ukrainian security guarantors, reviving a proposal made for the first time Russian negotiators during talks in Turkey in the spring of 2022.

“Russia and China share a similar view of history, presenting themselves as the winning forces of World War II. This sense of common destiny is now supporting their cooperation, “said Vasily Cassin of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow.

Cassin said that the celebrations, with Kim’s presence, could also give the opportunity to smooth out the tensions around Moscow’s growing alliance with Pyongyang, a shift that has caused discomfort in Beijing.

China has traditionally been the narrowest ally of North Korea, But it has lost part of its influence on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kim has sent thousands of troops to support the Moscow war and in return Russia has provided the isolated state of advanced rocket technology and unmanned aircraft.

Putin’s visit will be closely monitored in Washington, where Trump government officials have promoted the policy of trying to get Moscow from Beijing and turn it to the US.

However, most analysts reject such hopes. “Relations between Russia and China will always be close,” Cassin said. “A scenario in which Russia would turn against China or China against Russia is impossible.”

The two leaders meet at a time when Everyone feels stronger for their own reasons. China managed to prevent a trade war with the US, which earlier this month expanded their truce with Beijing for another 90 days, as Washington was trying to avoid resurrection of a conflict that shocked global markets in the spring. Beijing has demonstrated its power by imposing strict controls on the exports of rare earths that threatened US production.

Trump also avoided threatening secondary penalties for Beijing for Russian oil markets, while targeting India.

Meantime, Russia has ignored Trump’s threats to sanctions Unless it stops war, insisting on its maximalist demands and intensifying its campaign against Ukraine.

It is characteristic that Trump government has so far put little pressure on the Si to push Putin to end the war. And while Beijing would prefer to stop the battles in Ukraine, it is willing to tolerate the conflict, as it can prioritize commercial and diplomatic ties with Moscow and achieve favorable terms, according to analysts.