In an election marked by discussions about the war in Eastern Europe, the current president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, an ally of Vladimir Putin, is expected to be reelected this Sunday (3) with about 60% of the votes, according to a projection by the institutes. Ipsos and Cesid polls based on samples of election results.
Retired General Zdravko Ponos, who ran on behalf of the centrist pro-Europe Alliance for Victory coalition, is expected to come in second with about 17% of the vote, the same projection shows.
Conservative Vucic’s acronym, the Progressive Party, is expected to take first place in the vote for Parliament, with 43.6% of the vote. In this scenario, the party would not be able to get enough seats to govern the 250-member Legislature alone and would have to seek alliances.
The Socialist Party, a historical ally of the progressives and likely partner of this coalition, appears in third place in the projection, with just over 11% of the votes. In second is the alliance represented by General Zdravko Ponos, with approximately 13%.
The opposition largely boycotted the parliamentary election held two years ago, in 2020. As a result, the Progressive Party and allied parties secured 188 seats in the Serbian Parliament in that election, controlling the agendas discussed there.
Initially focused on issues such as the environment, corruption and civil rights, the Serbian election saw its main agenda change when war broke out in Ukraine. President Vucic, an ally of Moscow and accused of authoritarianism by opponents, surfed the regional instability caused by the conflict and tried to present himself as the only candidate capable of managing the crisis.
During the campaign, he created the slogan “peace, stability, Vucic”. In a country that was once considered an international pariah and scarred by memories of war after Yugoslavia’s disintegration in the 1990s, the discourse has found fertile ground, analysts say.
“People would rather have a leader who promises stability than risk change,” Zoran Stojiljkovic, professor of political science in Belgrade, told AFP news agency. “Major crises, at least in the short term, favor those already in power; they generate fear, but also hope that the system will guarantee basic security.”
A similar analysis is made by Bojan Klacar, head of the Cesid research institute. “The electorate is now looking for answers to their concerns about economic stability, living standards and political stability,” he told Reuters.
Serbia is dependent on Russian gas, and its army admittedly maintains ties to the Moscow military. The Kremlin, by the way, supports Belgrade’s opposition to the independence of the former Albanian-majority province of Kosovo, proclaimed in 2008.
The country supported the two United Nations resolutions condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but refused to impose sanctions against Moscow, as did several European countries.
Aleksandar Vucic, 52, a career politician, was also Prime Minister of Serbia from 2014 to 2017. In other periods, he headed the Information and Defense portfolios. Gradually, he turned into a nationalist politician. He calls for membership of the European Union (EU), but also advocates military neutrality and closer ties with Russia and China.
