Of Lionel Laurent

The latest political risk of French President Emmanuel Macron touches the limits of paranoia -to try the same thing, but to expect different results.

Sebastian Lekorni, the prime minister whose government broke a record last week after collapsing within 14 hours, was again appointed on Friday.

As before, the goal is to attract the center -left electorate with political concessions, prevent early elections, and pass a budget that will achieve stability on the road to the 2027 presidential election. What has changed is Macron’s obvious willingness to risk him. Perhaps this is not enough.

The survival of the 39 -year -old Council of Ministers, consisting of political exiles and technocrats, depends on 25 votes, or about one third of the parliamentary seats of the center -left socialists.

This is all that would be needed in theory to overthrow the government, assuming that they would be added to the votes of non -confidence by Marin Lepen’s far -right national alarm, the rest of the center -right allies, the far -left, the Communists and the Greens. That is why many depend on Lecorn’s freedom of action to “turn” to the left – it is supposed to have a “white check” by Macron to modify, correct or abolish his reformist bequest.

The very socialist party from which Macron left to establish its own movement has become the key factor that will determine the country’s future, and concessions could be important. Lekorni has already committed to resigning the right to pass laws by decree. In addition, it has given the green light to increase the taxation of high wages.

And this week it could freeze Macron’s divisive reform for pensions of 2023, essentially postponing the issue to anyone who succeeds the president to review it in 2027. The cost is high, as a “freezing” is equivalent to 0.3% of the gross product of 2026. Economics. In order not to mention the risk that the deficit and debt reduction will take the wrong direction. The old is new, and the reforms that were necessary have suddenly become optional.

This is an incredibly precarious path to survival, let alone a new government agreement. Macron’s machinations give priority to tactics and politics, essentially betting that, deep within them, both the center -left and the center -right want to avoid early elections and to distance themselves from the extremes.

This remains a hope and not a strategy. The number of political upheavals proposed can also increase only the nihilism and aversion that voters feel towards current political class, creating problems in the future. It may also be of little importance if a parliamentary alliance does not follow the line, as it has done several times in the previous year.

Investors have begun to ignore much of this turmoil and the impact on markets and the economy has been largely limited. Fair. But this is related to factors not controlled by Macron. The explosion of artificial intelligence-or bubble-spreads its magic to Blue-Chip companies such as Legrand SA, which benefits from data centers and attracts ABB Ltd’s interest in redemption.

The private sector was also quickly adapted to geopolitical changes, such as Trump’s duties. And there is a tacit confidence that the European Central Bank and the European Commission will support France if volatility has become a collapse. Some or all these factors may not last long, especially if France welcomes the new year without budget.

The main revelation of this drama was Lekorni himself. The faithful, self -proclaimed “warrior monk” has seen his popularity rates grow. At another time and elsewhere, it could be regarded as the “man of welfare” that the French seek so often in times of crisis. Other contenders to the “throne”, from Edward Philippe to Gabriel Atal, are slowly losing but steadily ground against Le Pen in polls.

However, for the time being, Lekorni seems to have been trapped in the political equivalent of a lifeboat without paddle – and sharks circle around him.

*Lionel Laurent is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and writes about the future of money and the future of Europe. Previously, he was a journalist for Reuters and Forbes.