States on the front lines of Russia’s hybrid attack in Europe believe that US President Donald Trump is right: H Spain and other supposed allies far to the south do not support them as much as they should. As Politico notes, they see it as highly unfair that Spain – especially with its strong economic growth – has not contributed more to Europe’s efforts to support Ukraine and strengthen its own defenses.

When leaders meet in Brussels for a summit on deeper defense cooperation next week, Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez is expected to comply with the requirements, Politico notes. If he doesn’t, he will face off against his counterparts, said a diplomat involved in preparations for the summit, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Another said that southern European countries such as Italy and Portugal should contribute to the north of Europe, especially if they want help to deal with immigration from Africa and the Middle East.

“We hope that his commitment NATO – at the 5% level – it will really accelerate, because we are racing against time,” said Finnish Defense Minister Andi Hakanen, whose country shares a 1,300km border with Russia. “That’s what we’re emphasizing as a front-line country — that other countries need to do their share, and quickly.”

The NATO commitment is where things get complicated.

At a summit in June, NATO leaders agreed to raise their defense and security spending to 5 percent of GDP annually over the next decade, up from 2 percent so far.

Some officials from northern Europe believe this new 2035 target is insufficient and too slow, amid Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and increasing violations of European airspace by Russian drones and aircraft. They also believe that Europe should increase its defense spending, as the US will not always be there to help.

However, Sanchez refused to sign the new target, angering the US president, who threatened to impose tariffs to punish the offending NATO member.

“Incredible disrespect”

Spain’s spending on NATO before this year amounted to just 1.28% of GDP, the lowest among all NATO member countries. Sanchez argued that Spain did not need to spend much to meet its obligations.

“I think it’s incredibly disrespectful,” Trump said Tuesday. “And I think they should be punished for that.”

Trump’s complaint found support in Sweden, NATO’s newest member. “I think there is a realization in Spain and the other allies that now is really the time to make defense investments happen,” said Swedish Defense Minister Paul Johnson. “It is very important that all allies keep the commitments we have all agreed… including Spain.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte sought to play down the row at a meeting of the alliance’s defense ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. “It is always up to individual allies to ensure that they contribute to the overall effort to the best of their ability,” he said. “No one can question Spain’s commitment to NATO,” Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said at the same meeting. “We have been a reliable partner for 40 years.”

However, questions about how to share the burden of European security among countries will remain high on the agenda of EU leaders in the coming days.

On Thursday, the Commission will publish its final plan to prepare the EU to fight the threat, the “roadmap” for defense preparedness. Officials will present the plan at a press conference with EU foreign policy chief Kaya Callas. Then next week, European leaders will discuss the details of how to fund Ukraine’s counter-Russian military at a summit in Brussels on October 23.

On the face of it, according to some EU officials, Spain is well placed to help. Madrid is recording an unusually strong economic performance, with growth of 3.2% in 2024, and is forecast to grow by 2.6% this year, according to Commission data.

Between January 2022 and August 2025, Spain has allocated only 790 million euros in military aid to Ukraine and donated tanks and air defense systems, according to data from the Kiel Institute.

By comparison, Germany has provided €17.7bn worth of military aid to Kiev and the UK €13.3bn. Overall, Mediterranean countries lag behind in sending arms to Ukraine compared to northern European and Baltic countries — Italy’s military aid amounts to 1.7 billion euros and Greece’s to 150 million euros, according to Politico.

As for Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Spain, EU officials are concerned. Legally, it is not possible for the US to impose specific tariffs on a single EU member state, as the Union handles trade matters collectively. However, Trump could target Spanish exports such as pork or wine.

“Trade is the exclusive responsibility of the Commission, which acts on behalf of all EU member states,” said Commission spokesman Olof Gill. “We will respond appropriately, as we always do, to any measures taken against one or more of our member states, and I also remind you that we now have a trade agreement between the EU and the US. This agreement provides a platform to address any further trade or trade-related issues.”

Sanchez is not worried

Back home, however, Sanchez doesn’t seem too worried. The spat with Trump may have strained relations between Madrid and Washington, but the tensions are positive for the Spanish prime minister at home.

According to the latest polls, Sanchez is unpopular, with 67% of the population considering him “untrustworthy”. However, polls show that a majority of Spaniards support him in refusing to significantly increase Spain’s military spending.

Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, said Spain has traditionally been reluctant to get too involved in international security politics and has remained neutral in international conflicts. The country’s decision to join NATO in 1982 was highly controversial, and millions of people took part in protests against the Spanish government when it supported the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

“Sanchez’s position is popular because it reflects the Spanish’s cautious approach to defense, while Donald Trump is an unpopular figure in Spain,” Simon said. “From a strictly domestic political point of view, as long as the Spanish feel they are fulfilling their obligations as a country, this is a strategy that favors them.”

Even if Sanchez wanted to bow to Trump’s demands, he lacks the political support to commit the country to a significant increase in defense spending, according to Simon.

Sumar, the far-left partner in the governing coalition, opposes any move that could undermine funding for social programs. The centre-right opposition, on the other hand, is unlikely to support a new budget for a significant increase in military spending.