Voters in Ivory Coast go to the polls today to elect their president, with outgoing Assad Ouattara, who has ruled the country continuously since 2011, emerging as the heavy favorite against a fractured opposition whose two main leaders have been barred from running in the election.

About 9 million voters will choose from among five candidates the next president of Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer and a pillar of stability in a region of the world rocked by coups and jihadist attacks.

Turnout is the biggest question mark of this election. By midday, in many Abidjan communities, turnout at polling stations was limited, according to AFP. It was slightly larger in Bouake, the second most populous city and “gateway” to the north of the country, Ouattara’s stronghold.

The outcome of the election will probably not surprise anyone: as in 2015 and 2020, most observers predict a victory for the outgoing president, aged 83 today, from the first round. “If we look at the political weight of his opponents, it looks like he has a wide open avenue ahead of him,” noted William Asanvo, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

Ouattara’s two main rivals, former president Laurent Gbagbo and banker Tijan Thiam, are out of the race. The Constitutional Court canceled their candidacy because the former has been convicted by a criminal court and the latter has a problem with his citizenship. Their parties, however, called on their supporters to demonstrate against the decision and against a fourth term for Ouattara.

“Those who could win were disqualified, I don’t accept that,” Gbagbo said last Wednesday, denouncing a “political coup” and “electoral theft.”

The government responded by banning demonstrations “to protect the country from disorder” and making hundreds of arrests, which was heavily criticized by many human rights organizations and activists.

Dozens of people have been sentenced to three years in prison for taking part in banned marches.

For many Ivorians, the presidential election is synonymous with tensions, following the severe crises the country experienced in the 2010 (3,000 dead) and 2020 (85 dead) elections. This year, four people have been killed since mid-October, including a policeman, in an ambush near Agboville.

A number of incidents were reported this morning – mainly road blockades in the south and west – but no major disturbances at the polling stations, some of which were almost deserted in opposition stronghold zones. National Human Rights Council monitors said that in some communities, such as in Mama, the birthplace of Laurent Gbagbo, voters were prevented from exercising their right to vote. In the northwest of Yamoussoukro, unknown persons “invaded the polling station, destroyed the election materials, set fire and left” according to a source of the security services who noted, however, that “in general, everything is going very well”.

“There is calm, but people are wary. There is no passion,” said Georges Douet, a farmer from Diekoue.

Besides Ouattara, four other candidates are vying for the presidency, but none of them is supported by a major party.

Former trade minister Jean-Louis Billon, 60, who broke away from Tijan Thiam’s Ivory Coast Democratic Party, voted in Dabakala and called on his followers to “go and vote en masse”.

Former first lady Simone Yvette Gbagbo, 76, is hoping to woo the voters of her ex-husband, with whom she has a frosty relationship. But the “Ivorian left” appears divided as Awa Don Melo, close to Russian circles, has also nominated.

The quartet is completed by Henriette Lagou, a “moderate” who had gathered less than 1% in the 2015 elections.

Voting will end tonight at 21.00 (Greece time) and the results are expected to be announced early next week.