Wednesday’s election in the Netherlands should surely go down as one of the best days Europe’s centrists have experienced in recent years.

Geert Wilders, the far-right populist pushing to leave the EU on the way to a shock victory in the 2023 election, has lost almost a third of his voters after 11 chaotic months for the Party for Freedom (PVV).

At the same time, staunch pro-European liberal Rob Yetten has surged in the final days of the election campaign and has a good chance of becoming prime minister. At age 38, he will be the youngest prime minister since World War II and the first openly gay candidate to hold the office, Politico notes.

“Many in Brussels will welcome the rise of a mainstream, pro-government and reformist party,” said one EU diplomat, who asked not to be named because of the political sensitivity of the issue. “The Dutch have a lot to offer the EU,” he added.

But even as they breathe a sigh of relief at the end of Wilders, the Brussels officials, diplomats and ministers who run the EU would do well not to celebrate too much.

If past years are any guide, the final shape of the next government and its policy plans will not become clear for months.

Who knows what will have happened in Ukraine, the Middle East or Donald Trump’s trade war with China by then? “It is essential for European cooperation that the new government is stable and able to take bold decisions, given the current geopolitical challenges facing Europe,” said the same diplomat.

Even when the new coalition government finally begins its parliamentary work, these elections should worry Europe’s liberal centrists almost as much as they delight them.

The pro-European Geten

Yetten’s Democracy 66 party has never performed so well in a Dutch election. He told Politico this week that he wants to bring the Netherlands closer to the EU.

Officials in Brussels last night welcomed the prospect of the Dutch and their high-ranking diplomats returning to their historic position at the center of EU affairs after two years in which they lost some of their influence.

It was always going to be difficult for outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof, a 68-year-old technocrat, to succeed Mark Rutte, an EU star who now heads NATO. Internal divisions made his job even more difficult.

But the pro-European spirit was also strengthened because the subversive Builders wanted to keep the EU at bay. Geten’s position could not be more different. In fact, it sounds like the EU’s dream.

“We want to stop saying ‘no’ by definition and start saying ‘yes’ to doing more together,” Jeten said.

Staying Dutch

In Brussels, officials expect the next Dutch government to maintain the same general approach on key policy issues: curbing the EU’s long-term budget, cracking down on immigration, boosting trade and competitiveness, supporting Ukraine and boosting common defense.

One area where things may get complicated is climate policy. Yetten is committed to climate action and may end up in a power-sharing deal with GreenLeft-Labour, which was led in this election by former EU Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans.

How the Gotten-led government balances climate action with improving economic growth will be key to policy debates in Brussels.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has scaled back climate measures amid complaints from the centre-right that they are costly for consumers and businesses. However, it wants to secure support for new targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.

Furthermore, housing and immigration – two areas often associated with far-right politicians – were central issues in the Dutch election campaign. Both will continue to be on the EU agenda.

For many watching the election unfold in Brussels, the biggest concerns are practical: Will the next Dutch government be more stable than the last? And how long will it take to form a coalition government? Seven months passed from the last election in November 2023 until Schoof took office in July 2024.

“This is a historic election result because we have shown not only in the Netherlands but also to the world that it is possible to defeat populist and far-right movements,” Jetten told his supporters. “I am very willing to work with other parties to form an ambitious coalition government as soon as possible,” he pointed out.

Wilders

Bilders went from winning the polls and winning 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament in 2023 to 26 seats this time. Yeten’s D66 party, meanwhile, goes from just nine seats two years ago to 26 (at 98% of the count).

The center-right Christian Democratic Party won just five seats in 2023, but is now winning 18.

Most major parties say they will not work with Wilders, making Yeten the most likely new prime minister. Wilders, however, states that he is far from finished politically. “You won’t get rid of me until I’m 80,” the 62-year-old told his supporters.

In fact, Wilders may find a stint in opposition—freed from the constraints and compromises required in government—an ideal place to resume his provocative campaigns against Islam, immigration and the EU.

Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage were all banned before returning forcefully to their respective political front lines.

“We had hopes for a different result, but we remained firm,” Wilders wrote in X. “We are more determined than ever,” he stressed.

Timmermans is ready

The other cloud on the pro-European horizon is the fate of Timmermans.

His centre-left party was expected to perform well and was second in opinion polls behind Wilders’ Freedom Party in the months leading up to the election.

However, GreenLeft-Labor will likely drop from 25 to 20 seats. Timmermans, who was also a candidate in 2023, resigned as party leader.

It was not only a defeat for the party, but also in a way for Brussels. Timmermans had served as executive vice-president of the European Commission during von der Leyen’s first term and was seen by some, especially his opponents, as a creation of the EU.

Others point to the fact that the centre-left is facing difficulties across Europe.

“It’s clear that, for whatever reason, I couldn’t get people to vote for us,” Timmermans said. “It is time for me to step back and pass the leadership of our movement to the next generation.”

Yeten’s pro-Europeanism could also backfire on him in the next election. Unless he can pull off miracles to support his optimistic election campaign, his Eurosceptic opponents will have a ready argument for what went wrong.

Recent history in the Netherlands, and elsewhere, shows that they will not hesitate to use it.