The war in Ukraine entered its seventh week on Thursday (7) with a new military phase in full swing and Europe’s growing difficulty in keeping in practice the speech of support for Kiev against the Russian invasion of its territory.
This morning, Vladimir Putin’s forces attacked five large fuel depots in the Kharkiv, Mikolaiv and Donbass regions that supplied the Ukrainian war effort in the east of the country. The day before, the same thing had happened in Dnipro.
This is the password for the new focus of the war, announced by Russia last week and confirmed on Wednesday (6) by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, who called for the withdrawal of residents from the part under his control of the two provinces of the Donbass, Lugansk. and Donetsk.
Situated in the east of the country and Russian-speaking, they are at the heart of Putin’s official justification for the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945: after recognizing areas taken over by pro-Kremlin rebels in 2014 as countries, the Russian promised to protect them militarily. .
With the Russian campaign in northeastern Ukraine falling apart, failing to encircle Kiev due to poor planning, insufficient forces and having underestimated resistance, the Kremlin said it would “drastically reduce” operations there, claiming that this would favor negotiations on peace.
Kiev and the West said it was a lie, but the fact is that there are no longer any significant offensive forces in the entire area, so much so that the eviction of cities like Butcha has led to worldwide commotion around the horror scenes in the streets. This time, the reason was concealed, Moscow spoke the truth about what it was going to do.
In this case, concentrate forces in Donbass for the new phase of the operation, as the Ministry of Defense announced, avoiding the mistake of having few soldiers available on multiple fronts. Zelensky’s call for residents to evacuate indicates that his government is serious about the notion that a major battle is looming, and he wants to avoid repeating the scenes of Mariupol’s obliteration.
Before the war, about 3.8 million people lived in the rebel part of Donbass. In the Ukrainian part, just over 2 million. The Lugansk area has already been almost completely taken up to the historical borders of the region, while in Donetsk the Russians speak for 60%.
Ukraine has 44 million residents, 10% of whom are already refugees outside the country and almost 20% internally displaced. Death tolls are uncertain, but in the thousands so far.
The question is whether Zelensky will withdraw his forces to avoid a collapse of an important part of his troops or bring them closer to Kiev, where they would be better protected. Unlike the defense of the capital, effective with the use of light infantry armed with lethal anti-tank missiles, the battle in Donbass will require the use of mechanized forces.
And the Russians say they have destroyed 1,987 Ukrainian tanks and tanks so far, nearly two-thirds of what the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London) counted before the war. And the West doesn’t supply Kiev with that kind of weapon — at least not yet.
If he reconquers the Donbass and ends the domain of the land bridge linking it to Crimea, with the virtual destruction of Mariupol, Putin will have a victory to sell to the domestic public. He will be able to say that he “liberated”, mandatory quotes, the areas of the so-called New Russia in the neighbor and that he degraded his combat power.
On the other hand, there is no guarantee that such consolidation will not be the beginning of something bigger, such as the taking of the entire coast of the Black Sea or even an ongoing war against Kiev. That’s what you hear from nationalist commentators on Russian state TV, but that’s not to say it’s true.
There is also unanimous criticism of Western sanctions, which so far have not been reflected in a reduction in the Kremlin’s war effort. Putin has enjoyed a record in popularity since the beginning of the invasion, 83% approval according to the independent Centro Levada.
They also entered a new stage on Wednesday, with the announcement of a new round of US and British restrictions. But the knot lies in Europe, which is in a dilemma over how to punish Putin and not be hurt too much for it.
The central issue is the energy market, since 40% of the natural gas consumed on the continent is Russian, in addition to significant shares of oil and coal. This Wednesday, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, gave a shocking number to illustrate the problem.
“We gave almost €1 billion [R$ 5,1 bilhões hoje] to Ukraine [se armar desde a invasão]. It sounds like a lot, but we are paying Putin €1 billion a day for the energy he provides us. Since the beginning of the war, we have given him €35 billion [R$ 180 bilhões]compared to the €1 billion we gave to Ukraine,” the Spaniard told the European Parliament.
The point is that the rise in energy prices in the crisis is already affecting the continent’s inflation prospects, and this has a relevant political impact. Putin’s historic allies, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (Hungary) and President Aleksandr Vucic (Serbia), won key elections last week.
But eyes are on France, where Marine Le Pen’s far-right is closing in on President Emmanuel Macron. The first round of the dispute takes place on Sunday (10). Le Pen is a discreet ally of Putin, and Macron has mixed harsh criticism of Moscow with failed attempts to broker negotiations. With fuel on the rise due to the war, it takes risks previously seen as unlikely.
With all this, Borrell and his boss, the president of the European Commission, the German Ursula von der Leyen, will go to Kiev this Thursday (7) to show continental support for Zelensky. They will have work.
The Ukrainian has already complained about the ineffectiveness of the new sanctions and called for more weapons, criticizing the fact that the West does not provide equipment considered too heavy or offensive so as not to offend the Russians and risk a Third World War.
