By Antonis Anzoletos
Since the beginning of the week, major international and British media have been talking about the inability of the Russian army to maintain a long-lasting war. Consolidating its presence on the south-eastern front may have been the main goal, now it is a one-way street. Putin’s war machine has proven to be vulnerable day by day. This does not mean, however, that the battles will end soon. Will Ukraine become “Syria”?
For the future of the war, analysts three weeks ago were divided. Now almost everyone sees only the ugly scenario. Jens Stoltenberg did not appear optimistic that a quick solution appeared on the horizon. The hostilities in Donetsk and Lugansk are expected to escalate and last, and Volodymyr Zelensky is urging citizens living in Kharkov to leave.
There is no way Putin’s retreat on many fronts will lead to lifting of sanctions. And it is very doubtful whether the Russian president will be able to save his prestige by taking only Donbas. The Kremlin said Wednesday that Peace talks between Moscow and Kiev are not progressing as fast and active as he would like.
The ruble energy blackmail was interpreted as an attempt to protect Gazprombank (where foreign buyers opened an account) from future sanctions. Closing the gas tap would mean Moscow’s economic decline, and Putin would not do so. The United States is launching a new economic package to oust the Russian president. They are targeting two banks and will sign an executive decree banning any new US investment in Russia.
On the same path, the British, beyond financial institutions, ban all imports of Russian energy. The EU is trying to find a way so that European money is not directed to Russia in any form. Including oil. Equation particularly difficult. A fifth package of sanctions is being prepared by Brussels, despite any disagreements between the “27”.
All this while the bombing continues and Zelensky insists that the West should target Russian oil, while asking NATO for more weapons in order to equip its army in Eastern Ukraine.
Big changes
The eerie images of Bouka, the missing civilians, the trapped ghost towns, the uprooting of millions of Ukrainians from their homes, the death of thousands of soldiers, the leveling of cities and the irrational war in Moscow have formed a scene.
On the one hand are the cracks it caused in the world edifice. Europe will not return so easily to the peace brought about by the end of the Cold War, which ended with the abolition of economic borders and the common currency. Geopolitical instability and suspicion came to stay in the new environment created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On the other hand, according to Macron, the “brain dead NATO” seems to have been “resurrected”, and the European Union proved with the package of sanctions that the creation of the Recovery Fund was only the beginning. The beginning of the cosmogonic changes was made by Germany, which increased its defense spending with the information that Sweden and Finland want to consider very seriously the possibility of joining the North Atlantic Alliance.
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