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How the sinking of Moskva could affect the course of the war – US analysts explain

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Ukraine’s ability to target warships in the Black Sea may change the Russian doctrine of maritime operationsforcing Moscow to develop additional airspace in the Black Sea or withdraw ships near the coast, according to a report by the Institute for War Studies (ISW).

The loss of Moskva – whether from a Ukrainian attack or an accident – is a “Major communication victory for Ukraine” and a “significant upheaval for Ukrainian morale”notes the institute.

Instead, the Kremlin will try to downplay the loss one of the most important ships of the Russian fleet. However, the story of the sinking due to an accidental fire and an explosion of ammunition will further “hurt” Russian morale.

As noted, “Both explanations for the sinking of Moskva point to possible Russian operational shortcomings – either poor air defense or incredibly lax security procedures on the Black Sea Fleet flagship.».

The Institute emphasizes that the loss of Moskva will reduce Russia’s capacity to carry out cruise missile attacksbut is unlikely to deal a decisive blow to Russian companies as a whole.

«Moskva’s main role was probably to carry out precision strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles on targets in the rear of Ukraine, including business centers and airports. These Russian strikes were effective, but limited in number compared to air raids and cruise missiles from the ground throughout the invasion, and the loss of Moskva is unlikely to be a decisive blow.He adds.

The Soviet origin

The one armed with missiles Atlant heavy class cruiserlength 186 meterswas put into service in 1983the Soviet era, with name Slava (Glory). His mission is the destruction of aircraft carriers.

It was renamed Moskva in May 1995. It is armed with 16 Bazalt / Voulkan anti-ship missiles, Fort missiles, the naval version of the S-300 long-range missiles, and Ossa short-range missiles. It also has rocket launchers, cannons and torpedoes.

According to the agency Ria Novosti, Moskva updated twice in its history, the second in the period 2018-2020.

Its crew consists of 680 men, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Photo of the Russian Ministry of Defense from the cruiser Moskva on the Black Sea near Sevastopol on February 18, 2012

Three wars

His first war was the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. Russia has not provided information on its missions, but according to a high-ranking Georgian official, the Russian cruiser entered the port of Ochamchire to bomb in Contori Valley the Georgian military, which then lost control of the last zone they still held in the breakaway region of Abkhazia.

The then president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev had expressed his “gratitude” to the warship’s crew for his “courage and determination” during the conflict.

After the intervention of Russia on his side Bashar al-Assad in the war in SyriaMoskva was developed from September 2015 to January 2016 in Eastern Mediterranean to secure, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the “air defense” of its Russian base Hmeimim.

Shortly afterwards, Vladimir Putin awarded the entire crew with the Nakhimov Medalfor his “courage and determination”.

From Sevastopol, Crimeawhich forms the basis of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Moskva participates in the attack launched on February 24, 2022 by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine.

In wireless conversation at the beginning of the war and since acquired legendary dimensions and imprinted on Ukrainian stampthe little one’s border guards Snake Island they replied “Come and go …” on the Russian cruiser when asked to surrender. Shortly afterwards, Moskva and Vassili Bykov bombed the island. Members of the Ukrainian border guard were taken prisoner.

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