Owner of a unique historical, political and demographic weight in the Middle East, Egypt has mobilized in recent weeks to face, in its economy, the consequences of the War in Ukraine, evaluated as potential ingredients to generate a wave of turmoil reminiscent of the Arab Spring. , started in 2010.
Allied countries, worried about the outbreak of demonstrations provoked, for example, by the increase in the price of food and by inflation, have already put together billions of packages of economic aid to Cairo.
The quick reaction of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates meant the announcement of aid and investments in excess of US$ 20 billion. Egypt has also requested assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
Ruled since 2014 by General Abdul al-Sisi, the country usually leads the ranking of global wheat importers, with around 80% of purchases previously coming from Ukraine and Russia. The tragedy of the war in Eastern Europe also meant the stagnation of the arrival of Russians and Ukrainians in tourism, responsible for 12% of GDP and around 2 million jobs.
In pre-pandemic eras, travelers from Kiev and Moscow flocked to Egyptian resorts, ranking top of foreign visitors. Before the war, 7 million tourists were expected to arrive this year, double the number in 2021, with half of them coming from Russia and Ukraine.
The search for tourists is now based on the redesign of Middle-Eastern geopolitics. Cairo’s efforts are focused on attracting Israelis mainly to resorts in the Sharm el-Sheikh region on the Red Sea coast. In 2019, according to some estimates, around 700,000 visitors disembarked from Israeli planes on Egyptian soil.
General al-Sisi’s regime is betting on intensifying ties with Israel, with mainly economic objectives. He sees in his former enemy —with whom he signed a peace agreement in 1979, the first between the Jewish State and an Arab country—a trade and investment partner, with a relevant role to play in boosting the Egyptian economy.
In March, al-Sisi received the rulers Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates and Naftali Bennett of Israel in Sharm el-Sheikh. The conversation addressed, among other topics, the economic consequences of the Ukrainian War in the Middle East.
At stake, regional stability and the survival of various authoritarian regimes in the region. In the case of Egypt, rising food prices were at the root of three waves of protests.
In 1977, in the Anwar Sadat era, there was the “bread revolt”, when about 800 people were injured, in a scenario of military repression. In 2011, the demonstrations responsible for the fall of Hosni Mubarak, in power since 1981, carried as one of the most popular slogans “bread, freedom, social justice”. Six years later, during the al-Sisi era, protests erupted in several cities in reaction to cuts in wheat subsidies.
Echoes of a new Arab Spring, with protests and social turmoil, worry Cairo and allies such as the conservative monarchies of the Persian Gulf. That is why Saudis, Qataris and Emirati did not hesitate to help the Egyptian economy.
With additional resources, Egypt has already pointed towards India as a substitute source for wheat previously imported from Russia and Ukraine. And, to boost tourism, it has new flights, from Tel Aviv to Sharm el-Sheikh.
