War in Ukraine: What do Finland and Sweden have to do with the conflict?

April 20, 2022

Robert

This is the War in Ukraine newsletter. Do you want to receive it in your email? Sign up below.

The recent intensification of Russian attacks in the Donbass region and the shift in the war’s focus to eastern Ukraine – a region from which Moscow could form a corridor to Crimea – seem to forget another objective declared by Vladimir Putin to start the war. conflict, 56 days ago.

The attempted takeover of eastern Ukraine is directly related to three Kremlin demands:

But there is another demand that remains on the table and drags other European countries geographically close to Russia: non-adherence to NATO.

Understand: Putin wants Ukraine to include in its constitution a guarantee that it will not join political or military blocs, such as NATO and the European Union. He claims that such a rapprochement would pose a direct threat to Russia’s security.

But what is NATO and what is its importance?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a military alliance created in 1949, in the context of the Cold War, to unite North America and the countries of Western Europe. It essentially served to protect the capitalist bloc.

At the time, NATO faced the Warsaw Pact of 1955, which formed the zone of socialist influence. From the end of the Soviet bloc, in 1991, the western alliance underwent a reformulation and widened its sphere:

12 it was the number of countries that made up NATO at its creation;
30 is the current number of members, including Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic.

Previously restricted to Western countries, NATO began to act in conflicts outside its area, such as in Afghanistan and Libya.

In 2008, a signal that Ukraine and Georgia would be invited to join the bloc — which was never formalized — was one of the reasons for the Russian invasion of Georgia.

Since then, Putin has been warning that he will take action against the expansion of NATO in his surroundings. The most recent signal came this Wednesday (20), in view of the progress in the dialogue for the inclusion in the bloc of two countries: Sweden and Finland.

“We made all our warnings. They know that, so there are no surprises,” said spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

On the 13th, Finnish prime ministers, Sanna Marin, and Swedish, Magdalena Andersson, met to address the issue. Traditionally neutral in conflicts, the two nations had been denying any intention of joining NATO.

Yes but: with the war, the debate was resumed as a security option in the event of possible new conflicts. That’s because the article 5 of the treaty guarantees that any country in the bloc will have military aid if attacked. It is the principle of collective defense, in which an attack on one nation will be considered an attack on all.

Finland says the decision on whether to join the alliance or not should be taken in the coming weeks;
In Sweden, government sources say support for integration could be announced in June.

Do not get lost

We invited Clarissa Nascimento Forner, PhD in international relations and professor at Universidade São Judas Tadeu, to explain what Finland and Sweden have to do with war:

What is Russia’s concern about the entry of countries like Finland and Sweden into NATO? The two countries have adopted a stance of neutrality towards NATO – of effective non-membership. Finland even maintains a cooperation and mutual assistance agreement with Russia since the 1950s, so its possible effective adhesion to the military alliance would have a breaking and weakening effect of this symbolic power of Russia in the region.

In addition, there is a very strong geopolitical dimension, especially for Finland, which borders Russia.

Although NATO revised its strategic concepts and its area of activity after the end of the Cold War, it never changed its main focus, which is to be a military alliance. So its expansion is interpreted by Russia as a direct threat.

What are the models of neutrality that Ukraine could adopt? Either completely give up any type of membership in NATO or adopt this model that has been observed both in Sweden and in Finland, of not being a full member, but being able to eventually maintain cooperation agreements.

But Ukraine’s status for Russia is very different from that of Sweden and Finland, which do not share the same cultural, historical and geopolitical ties with the country. So it seems to me less possible that Russia will accept the second option.