The presidential election in France will be decided this Sunday (24) by 49 million voters. Its result, however, has the potential to affect the lives of another 400 million people in the countries of the European Union and also to unbalance the continent’s geopolitical chess in the midst of the Ukrainian War.
For the second time in a row, the second round pits Emmanuel Macron, 44, the most European French president in recent history, against Marine Le Pen, 53, a staunch anti-Europeanist.
In his re-election bid, Macron ended the second round campaign with a 14-point advantage over his opponent, according to an Ipsos poll released on Friday (22). He has 56.5% of the voting intentions, and Le Pen, with 43.5%. The difference, which reached 6 points on the eve of the first round, on the 10th, grew slowly and steadily over the last two weeks.
The centre-right candidate is a favorite, but the far-right has never been closer to victory. In 2017, Le Pen reached the decision with 34.2% of the intentions – and lost the election with 33.9% of the votes.
The possibility that the European Union’s second largest economy could be governed, in the next five years, by a president who highlights in her program several points of conflict with fundamental aspects of the bloc worries its main leaders.
In addition to promising measures that would jeopardize the free movement of people and goods within the EU, Le Pen is a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In 2014, she acknowledged Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and saw her party obtain a loan of around €9 million from a bank in the country. In recent weeks, she has condemned the invasion of Ukraine and sought to distance herself from the Kremlin but has opposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
On Thursday (20), the prime ministers of Germany, Spain and Portugal declared their support for Macron’s re-election – intervention in domestic affairs considered rare among members of the bloc. “We need France on our side. A France that defends justice and opposes autocrats like Putin. A France that defends our common values ​​in a Europe in which we recognize ourselves, free and open to the world, sovereign, strong and generous”, he says. the text signed by Olaf Scholz, Pedro Sánchez and António Costa and published in the French newspaper Le Monde.
The explicit support endorses one of the most repeated phrases by Macron in the final stretch of the campaign, used in his closing speech of the only debate between the candidates, held last Wednesday. “This election is a referendum for or against the European Union.”
In 2017, Le Pen was marked by his proposal to withdraw France from the bloc and return to the franc as the currency. Since the electoral defeat, however, the word “Frexit” has been left behind, as part of the process of remodeling its image, which ended up re-presenting it in this election as a less aggressive, more smiling policy, closer to the common citizen. . It is an attempt to establish a contrast with Macron, seen as a president of the rich, of the metropolises, arrogant and distant from the real life of the population.
Before the first round, the far-rightist carried out a campaign focused on issues related to the cost of living – the main concern of the French when defining the vote. The strategy paid off and secured him second place in the dispute, with 23.1%, behind Macron (27.8%) and slightly ahead of the ultra-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (21.9%).
In addition to trying to distance itself from international issues, its program does not mention France’s departure from the European bloc. “Frexit is by no means our project,” Le Pen said shortly after the first round. “We want to reform the EU from within.”
In its list of 22 proposals, however, the first and last topics clash with the coalition’s basic principles. In the first, a constitutional referendum to contain “uncontrolled” immigration, with measures to give priority to French people in access to employment and social housing. The idea contradicts Articles 15 and 21 of the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights, which guarantee freedom of work for a citizen of the bloc in any member country and veto all types of discrimination based on nationality.
In the final item, Le Pen indicates the creation of a ministry to combat fraud and embeds measures such as the “restoration of borders” to prevent the entry of goods that represent “unfair competition”, such as food products that “violate standards respected by French farmers”. . An excerpt from the program reads: “A State must know which goods are entering or leaving its territory. The serious deficiencies of the mechanisms established by the EU require the re-establishment of national surveillance of the borders”.
Together, if implemented, in practice the promises would result in the re-establishment of barriers to the free movement of people, goods and capital. As a result, other countries could adopt reciprocal measures against Paris, and the bloc’s authorities would trigger a mechanism of punishment, such as fines.
“It would be a very difficult situation for France, which could be isolated by other countries, with enormous consequences for citizens, services and the economy”, analyzes Sylvain Kahn, geographer and professor of European affairs in the history department at Sciences Po.
According to him, in saying that she intends to reform the bloc from within, she is following the example of the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán. Newly re-elected to a fifth term, he has become a role model for right-wing ultranationalist politicians for his project of “illiberal democracy”.
“In her program there are many points similar to what Orbán does in practice. On the one hand, saying ‘yes, we must stay in the EU because we have to be united against other nations’. On the other hand, she doesn’t like the European Commission, which disagrees of the rules. The EU cannot work like that.”
For Teresa Coratella, an analyst at the Italian headquarters of the European Council on Foreign Relations, there is a feeling of apprehension in Brussels regarding the French election. “Nobody expected to see such a small difference in polls between two completely opposing views of France and France’s role in Europe. Depending on who wins, the balance in the EU can be completely shifted.”
In five years as president, Macron has faced Brexit, the Covid-19 crises and, now, the Ukrainian War on the external front. Throughout these moments, he saw his role within Europe evolve. At the beginning of the term, his idea of ​​the need to strengthen a “sovereign Europe”, with “strategic autonomy”, was practically ignored by the other leaders. With the pandemic, the scenario has changed.
In the first weeks after the virus was identified in Europe, in February 2020, he spoke of the need for a united and united Europe against the virus and, alongside former German Prime Minister Angela Merkel, played an important role in the elaboration of the €750 billion recovery plan, approved in July of that year.
“We can say that Macron has effectively become a European leader in the Covid crisis. With the pandemic, what he had been talking about for years began to make sense”, says Kahn. On the other hand, he would have been less visionary on the Russian question, having insisted from his early years in office on establishing a bilateral dialogue with Putin.
“He argued that it was necessary to try to get closer, given the discredit of other European leaders. Obviously, talking to Putin had no result.”
In the event of re-election this Sunday, in addition to dealing with the setback of the war, another challenge for the continuity of the European project is even closer to France – Germany. According to Coratella, the post-Merkel era combined with the conflict with Russia makes Berlin go through a deep identity crisis.
“Macron is having trouble managing the position of Germany, which is still opposed to a total energy embargo on Russia. At some point, Scholz and Macron, two very different personalities, will have to face this, which could pose a serious problem.” for the Franco-German engine that drives the European project”, he says.
The reconstruction of a dialogue with Berlin, which should no longer be the same as before the war, can see in the sequel another such obligation. In 2023, Italy, the EU’s third largest economy, holds parliamentary elections. The best-placed party in the polls today is Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, an ultra-rightist who advocates reforming the EU from the inside, so that it becomes more respectful of national identities and sovereignties — similarities that may not be mere coincidences.
