Chinese regime leader Xi Jinping waved to a crowd of students who applauded enthusiastically. He has had meetings with Olympic Games officials, economic policymakers and European leaders. And he visited a tropical island.
But the politician’s busy schedule in April has a telling gap, which exposes the situation Covid is creating in a politically crucial year when he hopes to prolong his power. Xi stayed behind the scenes when it came to the biggest and most controversial lockdown in China since the start of the pandemic.
Throughout April, he did not make public speeches focused on the outbreak of the disease in China, which brought his biggest city into lockdown to try to stem the rise in infections, and the capital, Beijing, on alert after an explosion of cases. He also did not directly address the 25 million Shanghai residents who have been ordered to stay at home for weeks and who have complained of food shortages, overwhelmed hospitals and confusion over the lockdown rules.
“He deliberately wants to keep some distance” from Shanghai, says Deng Yuwen, a former editor of a Communist Party newspaper who lives in the US. “Without a doubt, he is doing a lot to fight the pandemic behind the scenes, but of course he doesn’t want to be dragged directly into this mess.”
Xi’s orders have been conveyed through subordinates or in briefing reports from meetings, which cite his demand to maintain a dynamic “zero Covid” policy — essentially ensuring, through rigorous mass testing and isolation of contaminated and close contacts, that there are no cases in a population of 1.4 billion. On Friday, the Communist Party’s Politburo – a council of 25 leaders, which includes Xi – renewed its commitment to that goal, noting the growing economic risks of Covid and the Ukrainian War.
The outbreaks in Shanghai, Beijing and other cities are testing Xi’s acumen and authority ahead of a major Communist Party congress later this year. While he is almost certain to win an unprecedented third term as the party’s general secretary, Xi also wants to ensure in his new government that the authorities will defend him and enforce his agenda.
To ensure that outcome, Xi wants to demonstrate serene political dominance and, until recently, the “Covid zero” strategy was a striking showcase: an effective, if expensive, and generally popular promise that China would avoid mass contamination and death.
After Communist Party officials initially played down the virus, in early 2020 Xi turned China into an epidemiological stronghold, stifling infections and protecting the economy as the US racked up nearly 1 million Covid deaths.
But now there is no easy way out of this fortress. Xi’s leadership was so invested in showing that China could handle its own pandemic needs that the government avoided adopting foreign-developed mRNA vaccines, which are often more effective than domestic Chinese drugs. The immunization of the elderly in the country also lagged behind.
Without the necessary defenses, China could face a growth in cases that, even with the lower virulence of the omicron, authorities warn, could overwhelm hospitals. But the goal of eliminating virtually all cases risks becoming a costly and contentious task with no end in sight if the omicron outbreaks continue to lead to measures that shut down entire cities.
“This policy was a demonstration that the government puts the health and well-being of the Chinese population first,” says Patricia Thornton, a professor at the University of Oxford who studies Chinese politics and society. “[Agora] It’s getting harder for Xi Jinping to tell this story.”
Lockdowns and constant surveillance orders, especially in Shanghai, have fueled frustration among the population, exhausted local officials and health workers, and undermined economic progress.
While in previous China lockdowns the complaints were from residents about the draconian restrictions, this time there are more and bolder critics, including economists and business executives, arguing that “Covid zero” has become unsustainable in the face of the new omni variant.
“Covid is not the only disease that threatens the public’s lives,” wrote Liang Jianzhang, co-founder of Trip.com Group, a major Chinese travel company, in a recent article in Chinese Enterprise News. “Sacrificing everything in pursuit of extreme ‘shock’ measures is not the all-encompassing victory we really need.”
The unexpected 2022 turmoil, including China’s devious stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is extremely unlikely to deny Xi a third term. He is the most powerful Chinese leader in decades, and the anger in Shanghai shows no signs of turning into a challenge to his rule. In other cities and towns there continues to be acceptance, if not enthusiasm, for tight controls.
But the lingering economic damage and social tensions from long shutdowns could reduce Xi’s power to win elite support for his choices for the next leadership, says Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College in California who studies Chinese politics. . Xi will likely remain in charge no matter what, but his power may gradually increase or decrease, and the authorities around him are important.
“The difference with the ‘Covid zero’ policy is that the costs are now visible. You can’t go over them.”
Even before the Shanghai crisis, Xi seemed prepared for combat. Officials recently suggested that criticizing pandemic policy amounts to disloyalty to Xi, and called the elimination of cases “a political duty that takes precedence over all.”
“Numerous facts tell us that we can only gain respect and initiative if we show the spirit of brave fighters defeating our enemies face to face on a narrow path, daring to fight, mastering the fight,” Xi told Party School officials in early March. .
Last week, the leader promised to support China’s growth with investments in infrastructure, and last Friday (29) the Politburo reaffirmed that the government will stabilize the economy and extinguish Covid cases.
“Persist with the dynamic ‘Zero Covid’ policy, protecting people’s lives and health as much as possible, while minimizing the impact of the pandemic on economic and social development,” read the Xinhua news agency’s summary of the meeting. of the Politburo.
But an increasingly vocal group of Chinese economists and business leaders argue that the damage caused by the shutdowns will be harder to repair. Chronic uncertainty about when it will be possible to travel, spend, buy real estate or invest in business has undermined consumer and business confidence.
The solution, they say, is to accelerate the rollout of vaccines and treatments and ensure that the elderly and other vulnerable groups are immunized, allowing for greater flexibility when infections arise.
“The dynamic policy we are applying is increasingly expensive and less and less effective,” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings, in a speech last month that was widely shared on Chinese social media. In a telephone interview, he said: “Once more and more people understand that the economic costs are too high and unsustainable, change will come more easily.”
